Ukraine exhausts EU duty-free quota for apple concentrate; Moldova route in focus

Ukraine has fully used up its annual duty-free quota for apple juice concentrate exports to the European Union, and shipments for the remainder of the year will be charged the bloc's standard tariff. The Polish horticultural portal sad24.pl reported that a Ukrainian business association announced the quota was exhausted in mid-September, and that European Commission tariff-quota data confirm it: the balance column shows 0 kg against a ceiling of 30,000 tonnes.

From that point, every consignment of Ukrainian concentrate entering an EU member state is subject to the base EU duty of 18% or higher. According to sad24.pl, Ukrainian concentrate has been priced EUR 200-300 per tonne below Polish material. The duty closes that gap and brings landed prices to levels comparable with Polish product, removing the cost advantage that made concentrate from the East attractive to EU processors.

Timing hits the peak import window

The change lands at the most sensitive point of the processing calendar. sad24.pl notes that October and November are the months when Polish processors import the largest volumes of concentrate from Ukraine and from non-EU suppliers in general. In theory the tariff should shift demand towards domestic raw material and support prices for industrial apples in Poland, which is good news for growers and unwelcome for processors that built their autumn purchasing around cheaper imported concentrate.

sad24.pl cautions that the effect is not automatic. The industrial apple market depends on a far wider set of global factors, and in the portal's assessment the outlook for concentrate has not turned around by 180 degrees simply because one origin lost its preferential access.

Moldova as the alternative route

The main reason for caution is Moldova. Under successive agreements with Brussels, Moldova can export juices and processed fruit products, including apple juice concentrate, to the EU duty-free and without volume limits. sad24.pl argues that a sharp jump in concentrate imports from Moldova from October onwards would effectively signal Ukrainian volume re-entering the single market under new paperwork.

Logistics reinforces that option. Ukrainian ports have been completely blocked since July because of attacks by the Russian fleet, according to sad24.pl, which leaves concentrate two practical westbound paths: overland through Poland with the duty paid, or through Moldova, blended with Moldovan concentrate, duty-free but with an intermediary taking a margin. Shipping through the Romanian port of Constanta also means paying the duty, except where the cargo moves as transit to a destination outside the EU.

The 2024 price spike is not returning

The demand backdrop has also changed. sad24.pl points out that the factor behind the very attractive industrial apple prices Polish growers saw in autumn 2024 - severe shortages and record orange juice concentrate prices, which pushed buyers towards apple juice concentrate and lifted demand for Polish industrial fruit - is now history. Orange concentrate quotations have returned to the multi-year average that prevailed before the record period, removing the substitution pull that supported apple concentrate values.

For the industry the practical questions are narrow. The exhausted quota is an annual one, so the duty applies to Ukrainian concentrate only through the end of the year. Between now and then, Polish processors either pay more for imported material, buy more domestic industrial apples, or source through Moldova. Monthly EU import statistics for Moldovan concentrate from October onwards will show which of those options dominates, and how much of the tariff protection Polish growers actually capture.