Ukraine forecasts chicken production to rise to 1.54 million tonnes in 2027
Ukraine’s chicken production could reach 1.54 million tonnes in 2027, according to a USDA forecast reported by Glavcom. Exports are projected at 530,000 tonnes as output grows faster than domestic consumption.
Output growth outpaces domestic demand
Ukraine’s chicken meat production could increase to 1.54 million tonnes in 2027, according to a forecast by analysts at the United States Department of Agriculture reported by Glavcom. The projection is 60,000 tonnes above the expected 2026 level, implying production of approximately 1.48 million tonnes in 2026.
Domestic chicken consumption is forecast to reach 1.055 million tonnes in 2027, an increase of 11,000 tonnes from the level expected in 2026. Poultry products are continuing to gain a larger share of Ukraine’s total animal protein consumption because they remain relatively affordable, while the population’s purchasing power is recovering slowly.
The difference between the projected increases in production and consumption is significant for the market. Output is expected to grow by 60,000 tonnes, while domestic use rises by only 11,000 tonnes. This leaves producers increasingly dependent on foreign markets to absorb additional supply.
Exports expected to reach 530,000 tonnes
Chicken exports could rise to 530,000 tonnes in 2027, Glavcom reported, citing the USDA forecast. That would be 40,000 tonnes more than the volume expected in 2026. Imports, meanwhile, are projected to decline by 5,000 tonnes to 45,000 tonnes.
The 2027 supply projections are broadly consistent: production of 1.54 million tonnes and imports of 45,000 tonnes would cover domestic consumption of 1.055 million tonnes and exports of 530,000 tonnes. The figures underline the importance of export access to the planned expansion of Ukraine’s poultry industry.
Ukrainian producers are expected to remain focused primarily on the European Union. According to Glavcom, Ukrainian poultry sold within the EU tariff quota receives the highest price. The United Kingdom is also becoming increasingly important and could import a volume approaching Ukraine’s shipments to the EU in 2027. Britain has retained unlimited market access for Ukrainian products.
Concentrated industry faces wartime constraints
Ukraine’s industrial chicken sector remains highly concentrated. The USDA estimates that six vertically integrated companies will account for more than 75% of total production. This structure gives a small group of large processors and producers a central role in converting higher output into export growth.
War-related disruption remains the principal constraint on the forecast. Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are causing electricity interruptions, complicating logistics and creating additional risks for production facilities. Energy availability and the reliability of transport routes will therefore influence whether companies can achieve the projected output and export volumes.
The forecast points to moderate growth in Ukraine’s domestic poultry market but a stronger increase in its export orientation. For producers, the commercial opportunity lies in placing an additional 40,000 tonnes abroad while maintaining access to higher-priced EU sales and the unrestricted British market. For importers and traders, the outlook indicates more Ukrainian supply, although delivery risks linked to power and logistics remain material.
