Turkey’s larger sunflower harvest may ease cooking-oil prices from November

Production forecast rises after improved rainfall

Turkey’s new sunflower season is raising expectations of lower raw-material costs for cooking-oil producers, although consumers are unlikely to see an immediate reduction at supermarkets. According to Mavi Kocaeli, harvesting began in Adana in July and is extending across Thrace and other producing regions. The first 2026 crop estimate from the Turkish Statistical Institute, TÜİK, projects sunflower production at 2.3 million tonnes, about 16% above last year. Industry representatives believe the final harvest could exceed 2.5 million tonnes.

The improvement follows drought during the previous season. Better rainfall this year has reduced moisture stress and lifted yield expectations, particularly in Thrace, Turkey’s main sunflower-growing area. Hüseyin Arabacı, president of the Edirne Chamber of Agriculture, said the rain had produced positive results for both yields and crop quality by reducing drought risk.

Edirne illustrates the scale of the expected recovery. Average yield is forecast to rise from 140 kilograms per decare to 217 kilograms, while the planted area has reached 1.261 million decares. The province’s production is consequently expected to increase from 173,000 tonnes to 252,000 tonnes. In parts of Kırklareli, yields are reported to have reached roughly twice last year’s level, accompanied by improvements in quality and oil content.

Regional gains broaden the supply increase

Production prospects have also strengthened around Istanbul. Farmers in Silivri, Çatalca, Arnavutköy and Büyükçekmece expect harvest volumes to increase by 20% to 25%. These regional gains should provide crushers with more domestic seed and reduce some of the pressure created by the weak previous crop.

Higher output, however, does not automatically translate into lower retail prices. Karadenizbirlik set its preliminary purchase price for oilseed sunflower in the 2026 season at 34,000 Turkish lira per tonne, an increase of 17.2% from last year. Its general manager, Ünal Erarslan, said output per decare had risen to more than twice the previous season’s level. The combination of larger volumes and a higher procurement price means processors may gain from improved availability without receiving the full cost reduction implied by the production increase.

Import policy adds supply but delays market impact

Turkey’s Ministry of Trade has also reduced the customs duty on imported oilseed sunflower from 20% to 12%, effective October 1, 2026. It created a zero-duty tariff quota for 1.25 million tonnes of seed for use between January 11 and May 31, 2027. As an alternative, the policy allows imports of 500,000 tonnes of crude oil at a 20% customs duty.

Access to the quota is tied to purchases of domestic sunflower between July 1 and November 30, 2026. That condition supports local growers while giving processors access to cheaper imported supply later in the marketing cycle. It may also encourage factories to secure Turkish seed during the harvest rather than postpone purchases in anticipation of duty-free imports.

Mavi Kocaeli reports that neither the larger harvest nor the reduction of the import duty to 12% is expected to reach supermarket shelves quickly. The new crop must first be delivered, crushed, refined and distributed, while the harvest needs to progress far enough for the size and quality of supply to become clear. Industry representatives expect cost relief and softer sunflower-oil prices to become more visible from November. The eventual retail effect will depend on how the higher procurement price, improved oil yields and lower import costs pass through processors and distributors.