Sub-Saharan Africa’s alcohol market forecast to grow 2% annually through 2035
Beverage alcohol volumes in Sub-Saharan Africa rose 1% in 2025 and are forecast to grow at a 2% CAGR through 2035, according to IWSR data reported by BeverageDaily. Local production, affordable formats and rapid growth in RTDs and spirits are shaping the opportunity, while economic volatility and difficult distribution remain constraints.
Regional volumes return to growth
Total beverage alcohol volumes in Sub-Saharan Africa increased 1% in 2025 and are forecast to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 2% between 2025 and 2035, according to IWSR data reported by BeverageDaily. IWSR expects every major category to grow over the coming decade, supported by young, expanding and increasingly urban populations and the development of middle-income consumer groups.
Performance varied sharply by category in 2025. Ready-to-drink beverages, or RTDs, recorded an 11% increase in volume, while spirits grew 6% and beer rose 1%. Wine was the exception, declining 3%. Agave spirits expanded 8% and are forecast to grow at a 5% CAGR through 2035, indicating rising demand from a relatively small base.
Affordability favors local brands
The long-term demographic case is accompanied by persistent commercial constraints. IWSR said economic difficulties are structural features of the region rather than temporary headwinds. Alcohol is also restricted or prohibited in some countries for religious or cultural reasons. Recent consumer behavior has been dominated by downtrading: buyers have moved from spirits to beer, from imported labels to local brands, and from commercial products to artisanal or informal alternatives. Smaller, less expensive packs are growing rapidly because they reduce the immediate cost of purchase.
Local production already accounts for most recorded volumes. In 2025, locally made products represented 97% of beer, 80% of spirits, 87% of RTDs, 59% of wine and 71% of cider consumed across the region. These shares give established domestic producers a strong position and suggest that international companies may need local manufacturing, partnerships and price-appropriate packaging rather than strategies centered on imports.
South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya diverge
South Africa’s beer market proved relatively resilient as affordability pressures encouraged moderation, according to IWSR’s BevTrac research. Beer volumes increased 3% in 2025 and are forecast to grow at a 2% CAGR through 2035. RTD volumes jumped 14%. Canadian and Irish whiskey have also gained ground because emerging middle-class consumers view them as more affordable than Scotch and of better quality than South African whisky. Cognac, Armagnac and tequila are performing well, while consumers still trade up selectively for special occasions.
Nigeria presents a different generational picture. Gen Z is substantially less engaged with alcohol than older groups, while Millennials account for the largest share of drinkers and report the highest participation and heaviest drinking occasions. RTDs and predominantly local spirits are growing strongly, including gin, bitters, cream liqueurs and whisky. Flavoured alcoholic beverages dominate RTDs, with convenience and sweeter flavors attracting female and younger consumers of legal drinking age.
Kenya recorded some of the strongest category gains in 2025. Local spirits volumes rose 13% and RTDs increased 14%. Within spirits, Irish whiskey grew 35% and tequila surged 65%. Russell Menezes, IWSR research director for Africa and the Middle East, said the region’s demographics justify industry attention, but warned that low-priced local and artisanal products, structural volatility and route-to-market challenges complicate expansion. For brewers, distillers and distributors, the data points to growth built primarily on local supply, affordable formats and country-specific portfolios rather than uniform regional premiumization.
