StoneX cuts 2025/26 global sugar surplus to 1.45 million tonnes on delayed Brazilian cane crush
StoneX lowered its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 1.45 million tonnes from 2.9 million tonnes, citing a delayed cane crush and weaker cane quality in Brazil's Center-South. The consultancy also cut the 2026/27 Center-South crush to 635.3 million tonnes and sugar output to 38 million tonnes, while projecting a record 662.1 million tonne crop in 2027/28.
StoneX has cut its estimate for the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 to 1.45 million tonnes, down from 2.9 million tonnes in its previous forecast, citing a delayed cane crush in Brazil's Center-South. The consultancy published the revision on Wednesday, according to Reuters, as the 2025/26 season closes this month.
Atypical winter rains in the Center-South, which StoneX linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon, disrupted operations in the world's largest cane-growing region. Cane quality, measured as total recoverable sugar (ATR), also came in below expectations in the Center-South, further weighing on the global balance.
Crush delayed, cane carried forward
According to NovaCana, StoneX now projects a Center-South crush of 635.3 million tonnes in 2026/27, against 640.1 million tonnes previously. Even after the cut, the volume would be 3.9% above the preceding season.
The problem is harvest pace rather than the size of the cane fields. Rain cost working days in June, in the second half of July and again in the first half of September, and precipitation is expected to continue through the end of the year. StoneX calculates that 10 million tonnes of cane will be harvested in March 2027, while a further 22 million tonnes will be carried into the 2027/28 season.
- Harvested area in 2026/27: 7.96 million hectares, down 3.1% from the previous cycle.
- Yield: raised to 79.8 tonnes per hectare, up 7.2%, supported by off-season and in-season rainfall.
- Sugar output in 2026/27: cut to 38 million tonnes.
Wet weather also limits how much cane mills can direct to sugar, because excess moisture hampers crystallisation and leaves little room for a very high mix in the final months of the season. StoneX works with an average sugar mix of 43% between September and December, one reason for the downward revision to output.
Record crop projected for 2027/28
The picture changes in 2027/28, when StoneX projects a Center-South crush of 662.1 million tonnes — a record for the region. Harvested area is seen rising to 8.13 million hectares from 7.96 million, and yield to 81.5 tonnes per hectare. The forecast incorporates roughly 22 million tonnes of carryover cane from the current crop, which in a standard cycle delivers yields more than 20% above average.
StoneX raised its sugar mix projection for 2027/28 to 49.3%, 3.1 percentage points above its 2026/27 estimate. The shift is explained mainly by the price relationship between sugar and ethanol: sugar gained an advantage over the biofuel in São Paulo from July, while higher New York quotations increased the incentive for mills to send more cane to the sweetener. On those assumptions Brazilian sugar output could reach 42.4 million tonnes in 2027/28, close to the record set in 2023/24, with Center-South exports of up to 33.8 million tonnes in the April-March calendar.
Deficit narrows as other origins struggle
StoneX trimmed its 2026/27 global deficit forecast to 900,000 tonnes from 1.7 million tonnes, largely because of the improved Brazilian outlook for the following season. “The Center-South, despite an 18% increase in production within the October-September calendar, will not be able to prevent a deficit in the 26/27 cycle,” the consultancy said.
Elsewhere supply is contracting. Sugar production in the European Union and the United Kingdom was revised to 14.2 million tonnes, a 20% fall in a year, with beet harvest losses of more than 20% in the bloc's three largest producers. India's estimate dropped to 29 million tonnes and Thailand's to 9.6 million tonnes, with weather in August and September reinforcing expectations of poor crops in both countries. StoneX also flagged growing risks for crops in Mexico and Central America, which are going through dry months in the current off-season.
Stocks and the shape of the year
Global sugar stocks are seen falling 1.2% in 2026/27 to 74.3 million tonnes, taking the stocks-to-use ratio to 38.2% from 38.9% in the previous cycle. The tightening is not evenly spread. In the fourth quarter of 2026 StoneX still sees a relatively well-supplied market, with Brazil placing sugar abroad. Pressure should build in the first half of 2027, when Europe is expected to import more, Thailand's export presence shrinks and Brazil is between crops. In the second half of 2027 the balance shifts again as the 2027/28 Center-South crop arrives.
