El Nino risk lifts South African maize and soybean prices before 2026-27 planting

South Africa is entering its 2026-27 summer grain and oilseed production season under warnings of an intensifying El Nino weather pattern, even though farmers begin the cycle with favourable soil moisture. Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, writing ahead of the season, said farmers in the country's eastern regions are expected to start preparing land next month, with yellow maize and soybeans among the dominant crops.

Sihlobo said current soil moisture offers some comfort, but the rainfall outlook remains the major concern for the months ahead.

Weather service warns of a very strong El Nino

The South African Weather Service (SAWS), in its monthly seasonal Climate Watch report at the end of August, warned that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation had strengthened and was expected to move towards a very strong El Nino state over the following months. SAWS said the pattern could persist through the 2026-27 summer season.

According to Sihlobo, SAWS expects South Africa to experience the impacts typically associated with El Nino, including drier and warmer conditions during the coming summer. That combination matters most in the rainfed eastern maize belt, where planting windows and early-season rainfall shape final yields.

Prices move ahead of the crop

The weather outlook is already visible in grain and oilseed markets. Sihlobo said that on 18 September, white maize and yellow maize spot prices were 9% and 10% higher, respectively, than a month earlier. White maize was trading at about R3 965 per tonne and yellow maize at around R3 931 per tonne.

The soybean spot price rose 13% over the same period, to about R8 953 per tonne.

The scale of those moves is unusual in the context of the previous season. South Africa recorded record maize and soybean output in 2025-26, and supplies remain ample in silos across the country, according to Sihlobo.

• White maize: about R3 965 per tonne, up 9% month on month
• Yellow maize: about R3 931 per tonne, up 10% month on month
• Soybeans: about R8 953 per tonne, up 13% month on month

"Ordinarily, grain prices wouldn't rise this much after a season of abundance," Sihlobo said. He attributed the recent movements largely to concerns about the 2026-27 season rather than to any shortage of current stocks.

Planting decisions and input costs

"The focus now is how much farmers will plant for the various summer grains and oilseeds, and how the season unfolds amid the worrying weather outlook," Sihlobo said. Planted area in the eastern regions will be decided within weeks, before the rainfall picture is clear.

The sector is also absorbing higher input costs, particularly fertiliser and fuel. Sihlobo said those increases had been driven by the US-Iran war. For maize and soybean growers, the cost side tightens margins at exactly the point when the weather risk argues for caution on area and on input intensity.

Sihlobo described the coming production season as a potentially difficult one for farmers, with planting decisions and weather conditions likely to be watched closely as the summer grain cycle gets under way.

What the market is watching

• Whether SAWS confirms a very strong El Nino state as the planting window opens
• Final planted area for yellow maize, white maize and soybeans in the eastern regions
• Rainfall through the critical pollination period later in the season
• Fertiliser and fuel prices, which set the floor on production costs