Russian wine could exceed two-thirds of domestic sales within three years
Russian-made wine could account for more than two-thirds of domestic sales within two to three years as imports decline and vineyards expand. Supply constraints, rising costs and limited volumes of quality grapes could nevertheless push average prices higher.
Domestic share expected to rise
Russian-made wine could account for more than two-thirds of wine sales in the country within the next two to three years, according to the Association of Winegrowers and Winemakers of Russia, or AVWR. Some reports frame the forecast as a domestic share of more than 70% by 2028, while the association’s quoted estimate says the proportion could exceed two-thirds of total sales.
The association expects the market to become more domestically focused, mature and segmented. Russian wine is also projected to move beyond its role as a substitute for imported products and develop as an independent category with recognisable brands, emerging styles and a more loyal consumer base.
AVWR attributes the expected increase primarily to a further reduction in imports and an expansion of Russian vineyard acreage. These changes would give local wineries a larger position in retail and hospitality, but their ability to capture demand will depend on the availability of suitable grapes and consistent wine quality.
Premium supply remains tight
Demand for quality Russian wine is already running ahead of supply, the association said. Popular labels sell out quickly, while shortages persist in the premium segment. AVWR expects interest in terroir-driven wines made from grapes grown in specific areas, as well as limited-production wines associated with individual winemakers, to support further premium growth.
The supply imbalance creates opportunities for vineyard owners and wineries able to produce higher-grade grapes and build established brands. It also presents a constraint: vineyards require time to reach commercial production, and the current volume of quality grapes remains limited. Production costs are rising at the same time, which analysts cited by the publications say could increase the average price of Russian wine.
The forecast for market share also comes against a decline in current output. Profile reported that Russian wine production fell by 11.3% in the first seven months of 2026. The contraction highlights the gap between the industry’s long-term expansion plans and the volumes available to meet demand in the near term.
New categories and quality competition
AVWR expects organic wine, alcohol-free wine and smaller packaging formats to make an additional contribution to growth. These niches can broaden the customer base and create new shelf space, although the industry association sees competition over quality, rather than simple volume expansion, as the central trend for the next several years. Classified wines and stronger recognition of national brands are expected to receive greater attention.
Research company Romir estimates that Russian products could reach 75% of the domestic sparkling-wine segment in 2026 and 63–65% of still wine. Based on those figures, AVWR believes domestic wine could become the foundation of wine lists in both retail chains and restaurants by 2028–2029. For producers, processors and distributors, the key commercial issue will be whether investment in vineyards and premium capacity can close the supply gap without making prices prohibitive for consumers.
