Russian poultry output falls for second straight month as weak margins drive herd cuts

Production decline accelerates in June

Russian agricultural organizations produced 3.29 million tonnes of poultry for slaughter in January–June 2026, a decrease of 2.7% from a year earlier, according to Rosstat data reported by Kommersant. Chicken accounts for nearly all Russian poultry production. Turkey represented 6.2% of the country’s total poultry output in 2025, according to Agrifood Strategies, while other species held only marginal shares.

The decline became more pronounced during the second quarter. Output fell by 1.1% year on year to 580,500 tonnes in March, remained level at 572,100 tonnes in April, and dropped by 4% to 557,000 tonnes in May. In June, production contracted by 5.8% to 526,800 tonnes, making poultry the only meat category to record a marked decline that month.

Other livestock segments expanded in June. Cattle production for slaughter rose by 4.1% year on year to 91,100 tonnes, pig production increased by 3% to 491,700 tonnes, and sheep and goat production advanced by 11.3% to 1,900 tonnes.

Oversupply and costs squeeze profitability

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry told Kommersant that national poultry production exceeds domestic market requirements. It attributed the latest dynamics to seasonality and supply and demand conditions in Russia and abroad. Higher summer temperatures typically lead farms to reduce stocking density, while consumers may shift toward lighter menus.

Agrifood Strategies president Albert Davleev said producers are cutting output following overproduction in 2025, when volumes substantially exceeded demand. Export channels absorbed only part of the surplus: Russia shipped 409,500 tonnes of poultry abroad in 2025, equivalent to 5.6% of total production, according to Rosselkhoznadzor. Excess supply therefore continued to weigh on domestic prices as feed and other production inputs became more expensive.

Profitability in chilled poultry meat fell from 12% to 6% in 2025, according to Neo, while returns in frozen poultry hovered around zero. The deterioration reduced investment and contributed to the exit of some operators. The number of poultry companies declined by 2.8% over the year to 4,600 by the beginning of June.

Flocks shrink as regional trends diverge

Russian agricultural organizations held 479 million birds in June 2026, down 1.3% year on year, Rosstat reported. Davleev said many companies deliberately reduced the number of hatching eggs placed in incubators. The adjustment suggests lower output could persist beyond the immediate summer slowdown.

Production also weakened in some border regions. Farms in Kursk region produced 54,800 tonnes of poultry for slaughter in the first half, down 14.2% year on year. Belgorod region moved in the opposite direction, increasing output by 4.8% to 384,300 tonnes.

Wholesale prices respond to tighter output

The production correction has begun to lift wholesale prices. During the week of 13–19 July, wholesale broiler carcasses cost 235 rubles per kilogram, up 27% year on year, according to market-participant calculations prepared for industry associations. Fillet prices increased by 36% to 418 rubles per kilogram, while thigh prices rose by 29% to 181 rubles. Analysts observed the price surge from late June.

The movement has been milder at retail. Rosstat put the average June price of chilled and frozen chicken at 238.6 rubles per kilogram, 5.1% higher than a year earlier and below June annual inflation of 6.02%. Retail availability remains stable, according to Association of Retail Companies chairman Stanislav Bogdanov. Depending on store format, chains carry 16–280 poultry products, including 10–130 chicken items. Russian products account for 95% of the selection, with imports supplied mainly by Belarus.