Russian oat exports rise 8.2% as Mongolia and Kazakhstan increase purchases
Russian oat exports increased 8.2% year on year in January-May 2026, according to AB-Center estimates based on mirror customs statistics. Lower Chinese purchases were offset by strong growth in Mongolia and Kazakhstan, while Turkey returned as a destination.
Export volumes increase despite weaker Chinese demand
Russian oat exports rose 8.2% year on year in January-May 2026, according to an updated Russian oat market study by AB-Center reported by ZOL. The estimate is based on mirror customs statistics from countries purchasing Russian oats rather than Russian outbound customs data.
The aggregate increase concealed sharply divergent trends among individual markets. China, Mongolia and Kazakhstan were the three largest destinations for Russian oats in 2026, but their purchasing patterns differed substantially. Data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed that Chinese purchases of Russian oats fell 28.4% from the comparable period.
Mongolia and Kazakhstan provide the main growth
Mongolia increased its purchases 4.1-fold. Kazakhstan recorded an even larger proportional rise: AB-Center calculations based on Kazstat data put its imports of Russian oats at 51.5 times the year-earlier level. That comparison comes from a very low base, as Kazakhstan imported almost no Russian oats in January-May of the previous year.
The figures indicate that growth in Russia’s oat trade depended on rapid expansion in neighboring markets rather than uniform demand across established destinations. For exporters, Mongolia and Kazakhstan helped compensate for China’s weaker performance. However, the available source material does not provide the total tonnage exported during the five-month period, the absolute year-on-year increase or transaction prices, limiting an assessment of the change in export revenue.
Turkey returns while Serbia-bound shipments stop
Turkey re-entered the list of destinations after a long interruption. Turkish imports of Russian oats reached 4,000 tonnes in January-May 2026, according to TurkStat. The renewed flow adds another outlet for Russian suppliers and broadens the market beyond the three leading Asian and Eurasian destinations.
Trade weakened elsewhere. Shipments to Serbia stopped completely during the period, while Georgia and Armenia reduced their purchases to some extent, according to the AB-Center study. No shipment volumes were provided for those three markets, making it impossible to quantify their contribution to the overall result.
April and May show broader acceleration
Exports expanded noticeably across all key destinations in April and May 2026. In May alone, China imported 32,000 tonnes of Russian oats, Mongolia received 5,400 tonnes and Kazakhstan imported 9,000 tonnes. Together, these reported May flows amounted to 46,400 tonnes, although the figures do not represent Russia’s complete monthly exports because volumes for other destinations were not specified.
The late-period acceleration is significant for grain traders because it shows that China remained a large-volume buyer despite its 28.4% decline over the full January-May period. At the same time, higher deliveries to Mongolia and Kazakhstan established additional regional demand. The durability of the 8.2% overall increase will depend on whether those markets maintain purchasing momentum and whether China’s stronger May volume continues in subsequent months.
