Russian agricultural exports to China rise 44% as market barriers persist

Exports accelerate from an $8 billion base

Russian food exports to China increased 44% in value in the first half of 2026 compared with January-June 2025, according to the Russian Agriculture Ministry’s Agroexport center, as cited by KazanFirst. The increase followed a year in which Russian agricultural exports to China reached almost $8 billion.

Fish and seafood remain the largest segment. Shipments to China approached $3 billion in 2025, with frozen fish accounting for 49% of the value of Russia’s fish exports to the country and crustaceans representing 41%. Vegetable oils have become another major growth engine: exports have risen almost sixfold since 2018 and exceeded $2 billion in 2025. Russia supplied 61% of China’s vegetable-oil imports covered by the reported categories, including 67% of its rapeseed-oil imports.

Grain and meat gain ground

Russian grain and pulse exports to China expanded fifteenfold over five years and reached $773 million in 2025, Agroexport director Ilya Ilyushin said. Last year’s shipments included 1.2 million tonnes of peas, 525,000 tonnes of barley and 500,000 tonnes of corn. Access remains incomplete, however, as China currently permits Russian barley imports from only seven regions. Producers in the Black Sea area, which could supply substantial volumes, are excluded from the approved list.

The restriction limits Russian participation in a Chinese barley market with annual demand of 10 million tonnes, including 7-8 million tonnes of feed barley, according to Li Wei of the China Overseas Agricultural Industry Development Alliance. China also does not currently authorize imports of Russian wheat flour, even though its tariff on the product is 3% and value-added tax is zero.

Meat exports exceeded $680 million in 2025, more than twice their level five years earlier. Poultry shipments were worth $370 million and represented 24% of China’s imports in that category. Russia also exported more than 76,000 tonnes of pork valued at $191 million. In the first half of 2026, pork volumes reached 57,000 tonnes, up 62% year on year.

Costs, standards and logistics constrain expansion

Export duties weaken Russian competitiveness in two growing crop categories. Russia applies a 5% duty to peas, while competing Canadian supplies enter China without a comparable restriction. A 10% duty on flaxseed also puts Russian exporters at a disadvantage to Kazakhstan, Li Wei said.

Differences between Russian and Chinese standards for genetically modified content present a separate risk. Chinese customs has repeatedly returned Russian rapeseed-oil consignments, while 25 Russian exporters have been placed on its stop list. The lack of mutual recognition for certificates also raises customs costs and increases the risk of delays and penalties.

Commercial infrastructure presents further obstacles. Xia Yan, chairman of Efoodline Network Technology, identified excessive numbers of intermediaries, fragmented cold-chain logistics and the lack of an efficient channel for small direct-to-consumer orders. He estimated that 3-5% of products sold in Russian supermarkets could be suitable for China, but conventional full-container shipments leave much of that potential inaccessible.

Processed foods and dairy illustrate both the opportunity and the gap. Exports of prepared products have doubled since 2018 but were still only above $150 million in 2025. Dairy shipments totaled 9,000 tonnes worth $14 million, led by whey, whole milk powder and ice cream. Further growth will depend not only on Chinese demand, but on wider product approvals, aligned certification and lower delivery costs.