Russia’s safflower seed exports fall as EU tariffs and Kazakhstan’s crop reshape trade
Russia cut safflower seed exports by 25.2% in 2025 despite higher world prices, according to research cited by Sfera.fm. EU demand collapsed after tariff increases, while a larger Kazakh crop reduced another outlet for Russian suppliers.
Russian safflower shipments decline despite stronger prices
Russia’s safflower seed exports fell by 25.2% in 2025, even as higher prices on the world market limited the decline in export revenue. Research by the AB-Centre analytical group, reported by Sfera.fm, indicates that the downward trend continued during the first months of 2026.
The contraction reflects a combination of trade barriers, changing regional supply and currency pressure. For exporters, higher unit values have partly cushioned the financial impact, but they have not prevented a substantial loss of physical sales. Importers in Europe, Kazakhstan and Turkey have all reduced purchases of Russian safflower, although for different reasons.
EU tariffs close a previously important market
AB-Centre identified the loss of the European market as a central factor. EU countries raised import duties on Russian products from July 2024. Russian safflower deliveries to the main EU destinations subsequently dropped from an estimated 14,300 tonnes in 2024 to 2,310 tonnes in 2025, a decline of more than sixfold.
The reduction affected Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, the Czech Republic, Greece, Bulgaria, Italy and France. The scale of the retreat is clearer when compared with 2021, when Russian shipments to EU countries exceeded 24,000 tonnes. For European importers, the tariff change has reduced the commercial appeal of Russian supply; for Russian exporters, replacing a group of established buyers has proved difficult.
China remains an opportunity, but Kazakhstan dominates supply
No alternative market has yet compensated for the lost EU volumes. AB-Centre considers China, the world’s largest safflower importer, the most promising destination. China bought 56,200 tonnes in 2025, but Russian suppliers have not entered that trade flow. Kazakhstan remains China’s main supplier.
Kazakhstan has also become a tougher competitor in the wider regional market. According to Kazakhstan’s official statistics agency, its safflower harvest rose by 17.3% to 268,200 tonnes in 2025. As domestic availability increased, Kazakhstan’s imports of Russian safflower fell from 4,960 tonnes in 2024 to 1,070 tonnes in 2025. They declined further to only 160 tonnes in January-April 2026.
These figures show that Kazakhstan is not merely buying less from Russia. Its larger crop strengthens its position as a supplier to China, the market that Russian exporters would need to access if they are to offset shrinking sales elsewhere.
Turkey buys less as Russian prices rise
Turkey provides another example of prices and volumes moving in opposite directions. Its imports of Russian safflower decreased by 14.2% in 2025. In January-May 2026, purchases were another 53.3% below the same period a year earlier. At the same time, the price of Russian safflower supplied to Turkey increased by 28.8% in 2025 and by a further 26.1% during the first five months of 2026.
Sfera.fm reported that the decline in Turkish purchases was not offset by higher domestic production or greater imports from other countries. That leaves uncertainty over how buyers are adjusting consumption or inventories. AB-Centre also cited the stronger ruble as a constraint on Russian competitiveness. Together, EU tariffs, Kazakhstan’s expanding harvest, higher prices and currency appreciation are narrowing Russia’s safflower export options despite favorable global pricing.
