Russia weighs scrapping chicken import duties as wholesale prices surge

Wholesale poultry prices in Russia have accelerated sharply in recent weeks, reviving concern across a sector that has just posted its first output decline in years. The pressure has prompted the Agriculture Ministry to weigh scrapping import duties on some chicken cuts, even as officials insist there is no basis for runaway prices.

Wholesale prices climb at double-digit rates

According to Russian business reporting, the most in-demand cuts — whole carcass, fillet, breast and leg quarters — have risen at double-digit rates compared with a year earlier, with the sharpest gains concentrated in the past few weeks. Analysts cited in Russian media see the most likely path as a further gradual increase of 5–10% in the coming months, though they note producers could absorb part of the cost pressure through internal reserves rather than passing it fully to buyers.

Output slips as margins thin

Poultry output has turned lower for the first time in several years. In January–May 2026, producers turned out 2.76 million tonnes of poultry for slaughter in live weight, 2.1% less than the same period a year earlier. Average sector profitability had slipped to 6–7% by mid-2026, well below what producers regard as optimal, and some companies have already begun cutting staff in response.

Sergey Yushin, head of the National Meat Association, told TASS on 7 July that there is no basis for uncontrolled growth in poultry prices, citing strong competition and ample supply as restraining factors. He attributed the strain on producer economics to the high cost of borrowed funds alongside rising outlays on feed, energy, veterinary support and logistics. The Agriculture Ministry, for its part, denied reports of a production drop, saying poultry companies are operating normally and maintaining required output volumes.

Duty cut and Chinese imports in focus

The Agriculture Ministry has said it is considering zeroing import duties on certain types of chicken meat, a step that would make foreign supply cheaper for Russian buyers. At the same time, domestic meat producers have voiced alarm over a sharp rise in chicken imports from China, chiefly inexpensive breast fillet, which competes directly with local output.

For importers, the combination of tighter domestic supply and a possible tariff cut could widen access to the Russian market, while suppliers abroad — China prominent among them — stand to gain if duties on selected cuts fall to zero. For Russian processors, the same shift raises the risk of losing volume at home just as their margins narrow.

• Output January–May 2026: 2.76 million tonnes live weight, down 2.1% year on year
• Sector profitability: 6–7% by mid-2026
• Expected price move: 5–10% over the coming months
• Cuts under pressure: whole carcass, fillet, breast, leg quarters