Russia’s 2026 sugar-beet harvest forecast at 50–51 million tonnes

Harvest expected to exceed 2025 level

Russia’s gross sugar-beet harvest could reach at least 50–51 million tonnes in 2026, exceeding the 48.3 million tonnes collected in 2025, according to estimates presented by Ilya Bereznyuk, managing partner at Agro and Food Communications, in an interview with RT. The improved forecast provides a stronger raw-material base for the country’s sugar processors in the 2026/27 season.

Bereznyuk expects Russian sugar production to total 6.4–6.8 million tonnes during the season. That range is above the country’s average annual white-sugar consumption of approximately 5.5–5.7 million tonnes. If the forecast is realized, domestic supply would cover demand with a surplus that could support higher exports or replenish stocks.

Domestic prices may ease during processing season

The larger crop is expected to reach processors mainly by mid-to-late autumn. Bereznyuk said wholesale sugar prices would probably begin their traditional seasonal decline as the bulk of the new harvest is processed. The timing matters for food manufacturers, retailers and traders because higher plant throughput normally increases the availability of domestically produced sugar.

Russia is currently 104.9% self-sufficient in sugar, according to Bereznyuk. He said this exceeds the threshold established by the country’s Food Security Doctrine. The indicator suggests that the industry has enough production capacity and agricultural output to meet domestic requirements, although the final balance will depend on field yields, processing results and the volume ultimately placed on the market.

Global sugar market adds external pressure

The domestic outlook comes as international sugar prices are rising. Bereznyuk told RT that exchange-traded sugar futures climbed by almost 19% in August and reached their highest level since May 2025. He linked the increase to expectations of a sharp reduction in India’s sugar-cane harvest, greater ethanol production in Brazil and blockages in the Strait of Hormuz.

Lower cane availability in India could tighten expectations for global sugar supply, while increased ethanol production in Brazil can divert more cane toward fuel rather than sweetener output. These factors are significant because India and Brazil are major participants in the international sugar market. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz adds uncertainty for shipping and energy costs, which can affect commodity logistics and processing expenses.

Surplus creates room for export growth

Against that backdrop, a Russian output of 6.4–6.8 million tonnes would give producers a buffer over domestic consumption of 5.5–5.7 million tonnes. The difference does not translate automatically into the same volume of exports because stocks, processing losses and market conditions also shape availability. It nevertheless gives mills and traders greater flexibility if international prices remain supportive.

Bereznyuk described the Russian industry as stable, citing domestic production and coordination between the regulator and retail chains. For processors, the central operational question will be whether factories can handle the forecast crop efficiently during the peak campaign. For traders, the combination of a larger Russian harvest and stronger world prices could improve export opportunities, while domestic buyers may benefit from the expected seasonal decline in wholesale prices once new-crop processing accelerates.