Romania’s wheat outlook strengthens as drought clouds corn and sunflower crops
Romania’s 2026 wheat crop is forecast at 11.8 million tonnes by Economica.net, while a separate analysis cited by Cotidianul puts output at 13.3-14 million tonnes. Corn and sunflower prospects remain more exposed to drought, with large differences between Romania’s regions.
Wheat forecasts point to another large crop
Romania is heading toward a strong 2026 wheat harvest, although current forecasts differ substantially. Economica.net, citing the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, estimates production at 11.8 million tonnes. Cotidianul, referring to an analysis by Profit.ro, reports a higher range of 13.3-14 million tonnes, which would put the crop close to a record.
The JRC expects an average wheat yield of 5.3 tonnes per hectare after raising its June estimate by 2%. That would be 6% below the record yield recorded a year earlier but 17% above the five-year average, the largest such increase among EU member states. Romanian farmers planted 2.23 million hectares of wheat in autumn 2025, including 2.2 million hectares of common wheat. The common-wheat area expanded by 9.8% from the previous year, when total wheat production reached approximately 12.6 million tonnes.
Corn estimates lowered as soil moisture declines
The outlook is less secure for corn. The JRC cut its July yield estimate by 3% from the previous month to 4.03 tonnes per hectare. With 1.96 million hectares planted, unchanged from last year, this implies production of about 7.8 million tonnes, according to Economica.net. That compares with 7.7 million tonnes in 2025 and 5.9 million tonnes in 2024. Cotidianul gives a slightly higher estimate of approximately 8.2 million tonnes.
Romania remains one of the more positive elements in a difficult European corn season. Cotidianul reports that the EU crop forecast has been reduced to 52.7 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2007, after heat and insufficient rainfall damaged crops in France, Hungary, Spain and Italy. The European Commission also lowered EU corn and sunflower yield forecasts by 6-7%. Rain has supported Romanian corn in some areas, but severe soil drought persists in Banat, Crișana and Maramureș, with additional problems in parts of Dobrogea, Muntenia and Moldova.
Sunflower output may rise despite uneven conditions
Romania’s sunflower yield forecast was reduced by 1% from the previous month to 1.91 tonnes per hectare. Even after that revision, the expected yield remains 12% above last year and 4% above the five-year average. With 1.2 million hectares planted, production could reach 2.2 million tonnes, compared with 2 million tonnes a year earlier. Heat can still reduce seed development and oil content, leaving wide performance differences between farms.
The JRC said intense heat had further depleted already-low soil moisture and that summer-crop estimates were revised downward, although they remained above five-year averages. Conditions are comparatively favorable in eastern Romania, where crop biomass is above average, but water limitations and high temperatures are affecting flowering and early grain filling in western and some southern areas. The next rainfall will also determine conditions for sowing rapeseed, wheat and barley. A dry September in western and southeastern Romania could force farmers to plant into soils with inadequate moisture, while rapeseed is particularly vulnerable because it needs rain immediately after sowing.
