RaboResearch Forecasts 2–3% Decline in Global Beef Production in 2026

Global output expected to contract

Global beef production is forecast to decline by 2–3% in 2026 compared with 2025, according to RaboResearch. News.am reported the projection, citing the Global Beef Quarterly Q3 2026 report. The forecast points to a broad reduction in the amount of beef available to domestic and international markets, although the source material does not provide regional production estimates or country-level figures.

A fall of this scale would be significant for a market in which changes in livestock supply take time to reverse. Beef production cannot be increased as quickly as output in industries with shorter production cycles. If the forecast is realized, processors and traders will have to manage a smaller global supply base while competing for cattle and saleable meat.

Prices and trade may feel the pressure

Lower production does not automatically determine prices, because demand, exchange rates, feed costs and consumer purchasing power also influence the market. Nevertheless, a 2–3% global contraction would reduce the buffer available to absorb disruptions. Strong demand in major importing markets could therefore translate more directly into higher wholesale and international prices, particularly where buyers depend on a limited group of suppliers.

Trade flows may adjust as exporters decide whether to serve domestic customers or pursue higher returns abroad. Importers could respond by diversifying suppliers, changing product specifications or securing volumes earlier. The effect will not necessarily be uniform: markets able to pay higher prices may retain access, while price-sensitive buyers may reduce purchases, switch cuts or seek substitutes. The available source does not identify which exporting or importing countries are expected to experience the largest changes.

Industry decisions will depend on duration

For cattle producers, tighter beef availability could improve selling conditions, but the benefit will depend on production costs and the number of market-ready animals. Processors face a different risk. Competition for cattle can lift input costs and reduce plant utilization if slaughter availability falls. Traders and food-service buyers may need to hold more working capital if prices rise or contracts are concluded further in advance.

The central question is whether the projected decline lasts beyond 2026. A one-year reduction would mainly require inventory, procurement and pricing adjustments. A longer shortage could encourage herd rebuilding and investment, but those responses would take time to add beef to the market. RaboResearch’s 2–3% forecast therefore gives industry participants a clear planning benchmark, while the absence of regional detail means procurement decisions will still require close monitoring of individual producing and consuming markets.