Portugal’s wine and olive oil surpluses contrast with dependence on grain, fruit and beef imports
Portugal produced more wine and olive oil than its domestic market required in 2025, while cereals, fruit and beef remained dependent on foreign supply. INE data also show declining overall self-sufficiency in meat and dairy, despite surpluses in drinking milk and milled rice.
Export capacity concentrated in wine and olive oil
Portugal’s agricultural balance remained sharply divided in 2025, with substantial surpluses in olive oil and wine contrasting with continued dependence on external supplies of cereals, fruit and beef. Data from Portugal’s National Statistics Institute, reported by Supply Chain Magazine, show that the country fully covered domestic consumption of both olive oil and wine, leaving production available for export or stock accumulation.
Olive oil recorded the largest surplus. Its self-sufficiency rate reached 247.9%, recovering by 33.0 percentage points from the previous year. That means national supply was almost two and a half times the volume required by the domestic market. Wine also remained in surplus, but its self-sufficiency rate fell by 14.4 percentage points to 107.2% compared with the 2024/2025 campaign. The decline narrowed the buffer available beyond domestic demand, although output still exceeded consumption.
Cereal and fruit supply remains exposed to imports
The widest deficit was in cereals for grain. Portugal’s self-sufficiency rate declined to 16.8% in the 2024/2025 campaign, down 0.8 percentage points from 2024. Domestic production therefore covered less than one-fifth of national requirements, leaving millers, feed manufacturers and other grain users heavily reliant on foreign suppliers.
Milled rice was a notable exception within the cereal sector. Its self-sufficiency rate rose by 5.5 percentage points from the previous campaign to 119.3%, indicating that domestic supply exceeded national use. This puts rice in a different market position from the broader grain category and provides some capacity to serve external buyers after domestic requirements are met.
Fruit production also remained insufficient, although the balance improved. The self-sufficiency rate increased from 68.1% in the 2023/2024 campaign to 72.6%. However, Supply Chain Magazine reported that the average annual growth rate over the last four campaigns was negative 5.4%. Importers therefore continue to play a central role in meeting demand, while the longer-term production trend limits the significance of the latest campaign’s recovery.
Meat and dairy indicators weaken
National meat production reached 1.004 million tonnes in 2025 and covered 75.1% of domestic requirements, compared with 76.2% in 2024. Beef had the lowest self-sufficiency rate at 49.3%, meaning domestic production supplied less than half of the market. Pork self-sufficiency stood at 74.7%, a change of 1.6 percentage points from the previous year, according to the figures reported by Supply Chain Magazine.
Poultry was Portugal’s most consumed meat in 2025. Its self-sufficiency rate declined by 2.1 percentage points because consumption grew faster than production. Sheep and goat meat moved from a surplus position of 104.8% in 2024 to exactly 100% in 2025, eliminating the previous margin above domestic needs.
The overall self-sufficiency rate for milk and dairy products fell from 90.1% to 88.4%. Drinking milk performed differently: production increased by 0.3%, while self-sufficiency rose by 0.3 percentage points to 108.7%. The national figures consequently show several distinct agrifood markets rather than a single trade pattern. Wine, olive oil, milled rice and drinking milk have production above domestic needs, while grain, fruit, beef and the broader meat and dairy categories require continued access to external supply.
