Polyester set to retain its lead over cotton in global textile fibre demand
Polyester and other chemical fibres are expected to keep dominating textile fibre demand through 2034, according to the OECD-FAO outlook. Cotton mill use is forecast to rise by about 1.2% annually, but synthetic fibres, competitive pricing and recycling will limit its gains.
Chemical fibres hold a commanding market share
Polyester is set to remain cotton’s main competitor over the coming decade as chemical fibres continue to dominate the global textile market. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 says chemical fibres accounted for 77.6% of the end-use fibre market in 2024, compared with 22.4% for cotton. Non-cotton fibres have gained ground since the early 1990s, supported by the versatility and competitive prices of synthetics.
The divergence is also visible in consumption per person. OECD-FAO data show that per-capita use of non-cotton fibres has continued to rise strongly, while cotton consumption per person has remained broadly stagnant and declined in recent years. The expansion of fast fashion and athleisure clothing has reinforced demand for synthetic materials, while weaker global economic prospects are limiting overall textile demand.
Cotton demand still grows, led by Asian mills
Cotton is not expected to contract in absolute terms. The outlook projects global cotton mill use to increase by around 1.2% annually through 2034, driven mainly by population and income growth in middle- and low-income economies. These markets start from lower consumption levels but tend to show a stronger response to rising incomes.
Asia will remain the centre of cotton processing. China is expected to remain the world’s largest cotton processor by 2034, followed by India, although its dominance will gradually diminish. Competitive labour and production costs are supporting additional spinning capacity in Bangladesh, Viet Nam and India. Bangladesh and Viet Nam rely heavily on imported cotton because their domestic production cannot cover growing mill requirements.
Trade expands as prices face pressure
Global raw cotton trade is forecast to grow by 1.6% a year and reach 12.3 million tonnes by 2034. China is projected to remain the largest importer at about 3 million tonnes, but much of the increase in global trade will come from Bangladesh and Viet Nam. Brazil and the United States are expected to be the two largest exporters and supply the additional Asian demand.
Production is projected to rise by 1.3% annually to 29.5 million tonnes in 2034, mainly through higher yields. India is expected to surpass China as the largest producer as Indian yields recover, while Brazil and the United States follow at similar production levels. Faster output growth is also expected to rebuild stocks after their decline over the previous decade.
OECD-FAO expects international cotton prices to decline slightly in real terms, reflecting productivity gains and competition from synthetic fibres. Sustainability creates risks on both sides of the market. Demand for organic and certified cotton may provide support, but recycling and second-hand clothing could restrain virgin fibre use. Weather, water availability and pest infestations remain major uncertainties for cotton yields and farmer incomes.
