Polish wheat may open harvest near 760–820 zł/t as yields vary by region
Experts at the 8th National Rapeseed-Grain Exchange expect Polish wheat to open the harvest at around 760–820 zł/t, close to last year. Drought, frost and heavy rain have created sharp regional differences in yields, while ample stocks keep the market calm.
Polish wheat could open the coming harvest at roughly 760 to 820 zł per tonne, according to market experts who spoke during a grain debate at the 8th National Rapeseed-Grain Exchange, as reported by the farming portal topagrar.pl. Their forecasts describe an uneven season in which both yields and prices vary sharply from one region to the next.
Weather splits the crop
Drought, spring frosts and, in some areas, excessively heavy rainfall have shaped the condition of grain and rapeseed across the country, topagrar.pl reported. Fields in Wielkopolska, the Lublin region and the Zamość area now present very different pictures, yet the experts agreed on one point: the season is difficult almost everywhere.
"It is a hard year from nature's point of view, but also in terms of costs and inputs," said Zbigniew Stajkowski of the Wielkopolska Chamber of Agriculture. Marcin Sobczuk, president of the Zamość Agricultural Society, was more direct, describing it as one of the most difficult springs on record. He said rapeseed stands were only knee-high and that part of the plantations had been wiped out by frost.
Wheat prices seen stable year on year
Despite the weather damage, the panel did not expect sharp price increases in the new season. Wojciech Krzywosądzki of Louis Dreyfus Company assessed that this year's season would be very similar to the previous one, saying the wheat market looked practically the same year on year. Jakub Kowalski of De Heus Polska added that the market is now calmer and that stocks do not look threatening.
In practical terms, that points to a harvest opening with moderate prices and little market emotion. The 760–820 zł/t range cited by participants would place the start of the season close to last year's levels rather than signalling a breakout, an important signal for buyers and exporters planning contracts around new-crop supply.
Rye and maize follow a calm path
Experts foresee similar calm on the rye and maize markets, according to topagrar.pl. For rye, the only likely move is a slight narrowing of the gap between the consumption-grade price and wheat. Maize still has potential, but its market remains strongly regional and dependent on local supply, which makes national price signals less reliable than for wheat.
The conclusions from the debate were clear: this year's harvest should not bring a price breakthrough. The market remains active but cautious. Participants said the direction of prices will be decided over the coming weeks by the weather, by grain quality and by farmers' willingness to sell — a combination that leaves both the size and the value of Poland's crop unusually hard to pin down this season.
