Polish grain demand strengthens as harvest pressure fades

Harvest selling fails to depress prices

Poland's 2026/2027 grain season is departing from the usual harvest pattern. Large volumes of newly collected grain normally reach buyers within a short period, pushing procurement prices lower as farms seek cash and warehouse space. This year, farmer.pl reports that the pressure has been much weaker. Prices increased as harvesting progressed, although work had not yet finished in northern Poland.

Wheat and other grains posted smaller gains than corn and rapeseed, but their prices had already edged higher before the harvest and maintained that direction. Mateusz Pałejko of Agri Commodity Experts told farmer.pl that greater mechanisation and investment in warehouses, dryers and equipment had given producers more control over when they sell. Farms with drying capacity could also harvest grain at higher moisture levels during a season disrupted by rainfall.

Ports transmit global prices inland

Polish prices are also reacting faster to international exchanges and export demand. Pałejko said ports increasingly set the reference for the domestic market, with procurement lists sometimes revised during the same day after movements on Matif. In one example, wheat reached 1,000 zł per tonne at a port before an exchange correction reduced the price by about 10 zł. Corn moved in the opposite direction.

Port values do not translate into equal farm returns across Poland. Transport, fuel and distance from the buyer can reduce a producer's net price by about 150 zł per tonne. The gap is particularly important between northern farms near export terminals and producers in southern Poland. Higher fuel prices have made that disadvantage more visible this season.

Buyer activity at ports is nevertheless stronger than at the same stage last year, according to farmer.pl. The presence of harvest supply has been matched by demand at prices acceptable to sellers. This combination, together with farmers' ability to retain grain, has prevented the concentrated selling that traditionally weighs on the market.

Black Sea disruption supports wheat

Logistical problems linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are contributing to demand for Polish grain. Russia and Ukraine are major participants in global wheat trade, and Pałejko said their exports were slowing even if they had not stopped completely. Figures he published show Ukrainian wheat exports falling from 15.7 million tonnes in 2024/2025 to 14.0 million tonnes in 2025/2026. The forecast for 2026/2027 is a much wider range of 5.0-10.0 million tonnes.

The European Union still has a wheat surplus, but Pałejko assesses it as substantially smaller than before. Importers concerned about escalation, weaker availability and higher future prices may therefore secure supplies earlier. For Polish exporters and port operators, that creates opportunities, while inland producers must continue to compare export-linked bids with transport costs.

Corn and rapeseed tighten the balance

The relationship between wheat and corn is another source of support. Corn is unusually expensive and exceeds wheat at some reference points, whereas wheat is normally slightly dearer. Strong demand from the EU feed industry means expensive corn can encourage substitution and underpin wheat prices. Pałejko sees little room for a sharp wheat decline if Black Sea risks, weaker harvests and current corn prices persist.

Rapeseed has different fundamentals but also faces a tight supply setting. Its global market depends heavily on production in Canada, Australia and the European Union, while demand for vegetable oils is increasing. The combined picture is supportive for Polish crop prices, although exchange volatility, logistics and regional transport costs will determine how much of that strength reaches individual farms.