Polish farmers face costly fertilizer decision as imports plunge and export curbs tighten supply

Prices retreat but remain well above January

Polish farmers are approaching the next sowing period with fertilizer prices still high and availability uneven. European Commission data cited by top agrar show that EU nitrogen fertilizer prices fell by 2.3% month on month in May and another 10.2% in June. That correction followed a combined increase of 33.2% in March and April, when prices reached €554 per tonne, their highest level since January 2023.

The decline has not returned the market to its starting point. Average nitrogen fertilizer prices in June were 22.4% above January and 32.8% higher than a year earlier. Phosphate fertilizer prices continued rising, although more slowly than in the spring, and stood 20.1% above the beginning of the year and 21.5% above the corresponding period of 2025.

Polish imports fall sharply

Reduced imports are adding pressure to the EU market. According to figures reported by Arkadiusz Zalewski and published by top agrar, EU countries imported 1.84 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizer from outside the bloc in the first half of 2026, down from 5.8 million tonnes a year earlier. Poland recorded an even steeper contraction, from 867,600 tonnes to 75,600 tonnes. The report linked the decline to the full implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and higher duties on products from Russia and Belarus, which were increased again on 1 July.

A survey of retailers in different Polish regions found substantial price variations. As of 5 August 2026, net prices for urea ranged from about PLN 2,200 to more than PLN 3,200 per tonne. Ammonium nitrate cost between PLN 1,620 and more than PLN 2,100, while 32% urea-ammonium nitrate solution was offered from PLN 1,560 to almost PLN 1,900 per tonne. Polifoska 5 generally cost PLN 2,400–2,600 per tonne and Polifoska 6 PLN 2,700–2,820.

Price is not the only constraint. Distributors reported shortages of several products, particularly inhibited urea, urea-ammonium nitrate solution and selected compound fertilizers. Such gaps could complicate procurement before autumn sowing. High natural gas costs and expensive imports continue to support fertilizer prices, but pressure on grain prices is limiting farmers’ capacity to absorb them. Some agricultural retailers are therefore offering discounts, widening the range of quoted prices.

Export policies amplify global risks

International measures are reinforcing uncertainty. China extended restrictions on exports of DAP, MAP and some NPK fertilizers until at least August 2026, while Russia continues to apply export quotas to nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. India has suspended sulfur exports, according to market participants cited by top agrar, as it seeks to protect supplies for domestic fertilizer production. Tampa sulfur contract prices reached a record $705 per tonne in July. Egypt, meanwhile, replaced its fixed $90-per-tonne nitrogen fertilizer export charge with a duty equal to 10% of the product’s value.

New capacity may eventually ease regional shortages, but most projects will not affect the immediate planting decision. Angola’s planned $1.4 billion ammonia and urea complex in Soyo is expected to begin operating in 2027 and produce about 1.3 million tonnes of urea annually. Mexico is developing the Fermachem and GPO nitrogen fertilizer plants, representing more than $3.2 billion of investment. For Polish buyers, the near-term choice remains between purchasing at prices well above early-2026 levels and accepting the risk that restricted trade and local stock shortages make autumn supplies more expensive or harder to secure.