Kazakhstan consumers shift from juice as soft drink consumption rises
Juice consumption in Kazakhstan declined for a second consecutive year as consumers drank about 1.5 times more carbonated beverages than fruit juice in the first half of 2026. Domestic juice production, imports, exports and sales all fell, while prices rose 9.7% year on year in September.
Carbonated drinks move ahead of juice
Kazakhstan’s fruit juice market is contracting as consumers shift toward carbonated beverages and producers reduce output. Citing Energyprom.kz, bes.media reported that juice consumption declined for a second consecutive year, even as retail prices continued to rise.
In the first half of 2026, average per-capita consumption reached 5.25 liters for carbonated beverages and 3.41 liters for fruit juice. Consumers therefore drank roughly 1.5 times more carbonated beverages than juice. The comparison points to a widening gap between the two categories in a market where affordability and product appeal are becoming increasingly important.
Juice consumption stood at 3.6 liters per person a year earlier and 3.82 liters in 2024. The decline to 3.41 liters in the first half of 2026 extends the downward trend and gives domestic processors less room to expand volumes through the local market.
Production, sales and trade all decline
Kazakh enterprises produced 45.4 million liters of fruit and vegetable juice from January through August 2026, down 9.4% from the same period a year earlier. Production trends varied by juice type. Orange juice accounted for nearly half of the country’s total fruit juice output, making it the industry’s largest individual segment.
The contraction was also visible in commercial sales. Domestic juice sales fell 15% to 70,300 tonnes. Lower sales alongside reduced per-capita consumption suggest that the industry’s weakness is rooted not only in supply decisions but also in diminished demand from households.
Imports declined as well. Kazakhstan brought in 26,000 tonnes of juice from January through July, 22.9% less than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Russia remained the leading supplier, accounting for nearly 70% of imports. That concentration keeps Russian producers and trade conditions between the two countries highly relevant to competition in Kazakhstan’s juice market.
Exports dropped even more sharply, falling 2.4-fold to 980.6 tonnes. Kyrgyzstan was the main buyer of Kazakh juice. The relatively small export volume means weaker domestic demand cannot currently be offset through foreign sales, while the decline in shipments limits another potential outlet for local processors.
Higher prices deepen the pressure
Despite weaker demand and contracting trade, juice prices in September 2026 were 9.7% higher than a year earlier. The combination of declining consumption and rising prices poses a difficult challenge for producers: higher shelf prices may support revenue per unit, but they can also encourage consumers to choose other beverages.
Energyprom.kz analysts said competition from imports is not the only problem facing domestic producers. Limited demand within Kazakhstan is also constraining the sector. Even a larger share for locally made products would not automatically deliver production growth if the overall market continues to shrink.
For processors, the figures place greater emphasis on affordability and products that can compete more effectively for consumer spending. For importers and Russian suppliers, the 22.9% decline in inbound volume signals a smaller market rather than a simple transfer of share to domestic factories. Carbonated beverage producers, meanwhile, are benefiting from substantially higher per-capita consumption, although the available figures do not show whether their advantage comes from price, distribution, product range or changing preferences.
