Confagricoltura Warns Italian Durum Wheat Growers Are Harvesting at a Loss as Prices Fall Below €300/Ton
Italian farm association Confagricoltura says durum wheat quotations have dropped below €300 per tonne, under average production costs, forcing growers to harvest the 2026 crop at a loss. Planted area has fallen 10% since 2012 and self-sufficiency has slipped to 56.5%, deepening Italy's dependence on imported wheat for its pasta industry.
Prices below production costs
Italian durum wheat growers are preparing to harvest the 2026 crop at a loss, according to a warning from the farm association Confagricoltura reported by Il Sole 24 Ore. Quotations from the recently created Commissione Unica Nazionale (CUN) — the national pricing commission set up after years of disputes across the supply chain — for higher-quality durum wheat now stand below €300 per tonne. That level, Confagricoltura says, sits below average production costs: "whoever harvests durum wheat this summer does so at a loss."
The organisation's research centre stresses that the difficulties go beyond a passing market downturn. Durum wheat is the raw material behind pasta, the symbol of Italy's Made in Italy agri-food exports, yet the economics for growers have steadily eroded.
Shrinking area and falling self-sufficiency
Between 2012 and 2025, the area planted with durum wheat in Italy contracted by 10%, according to Confagricoltura. Over the same period, the self-sufficiency rate fell from 78% to 56.5%. To reach full self-sufficiency, Italy would now need more than 880,000 additional hectares.
The association frames the trend as structural rather than cyclical. "Italy depends on foreign sources for almost half of the durum wheat it processes into pasta, and this dependence grows every year, with margins for cereal growers contracting or even turning negative," Confagricoltura said. "This is not a market crisis but a crisis of productive sovereignty."
- Durum wheat quotations (CUN, higher quality): below €300/tonne
- Production deficit: above 40%
- Planted area: down 10% from 2012 to 2025
- Self-sufficiency rate: down from 78% to 56.5%
- Hectares needed for self-sufficiency: more than 880,000
Global surplus adds pressure
The domestic squeeze is compounded by rising global surpluses. A further increase in world durum wheat supply is expected for 2026, according to Confagricoltura. As a result, global stocks — already at record highs — are set to grow again, adding downward pressure on prices. The association nonetheless said it hopes the quality of the Italian crop will support higher quotations and a stronger valuation of pasta on domestic and foreign markets.
Data to reach the government
Confagricoltura said it does not intend to fuel controversy over the CUN price-setting tool, but rather to promote a supply-chain strategy that reverses the structural decline in planted area and brings self-sufficiency back above a safety threshold while securing farmers' incomes. On 15 July, during its summer assembly, the association plans to present these figures and a set of proposals to Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida, with the stated aim of moving from complaints to concrete, long-term answers for the Italian durum wheat supply chain.
For importers and pasta makers, the numbers point to continued reliance on foreign durum wheat to cover close to half of Italy's processing needs. For growers, prices below €300 per tonne against rising global stocks leave little room for a near-term recovery unless quality premiums or policy measures shift the balance.
