Italian durum wheat rises for third week as energy and Canadian crop risks squeeze pasta makers

Italian durum prices extend gains

Prices for quality domestically produced durum wheat in Italy rose for a third consecutive week on 14 September 2026, according to AgroNotizie. The National Single Commission, known as CUN, increased quotations by €3-€5 per tonne across almost all geographic areas and quality categories. The latest gains were smaller than those recorded a week earlier but confirmed renewed upward pressure after the CUN price list remained unchanged from 13 July to 24 August.

Imported grain also became more expensive at the Milan commodity exchange. Durum wheat from EU suppliers gained €7 per tonne, while non-EU material rose by €10 per tonne. ISMEA recorded higher farm-gate prices for fine durum in Grosseto, Catania, Palermo, Milan, Bari and Matera. At Altamura, however, the advance in Canadian No. 2 durum halted on 11 September.

Canadian harvest uncertainty drives quality concerns

AgroNotizie linked the Italian gains both to a broader recovery in cereal markets amid the Black Sea crisis and to worsening production and quality concerns in Canada. Rain and hail have affected durum during harvest in the western provinces, but the scale of the damage has not yet been quantified. The market is particularly concerned that moisture could cause extensive downgrading of Canadian Western Amber Durum grades 1 and 2.

Canadian prices nevertheless sent mixed signals. One cited quotation fell by more than €19 to €258.62 per tonne. The European Commission assessed first-quality Canadian Western Amber Durum at the St. Lawrence Market at $300 per tonne FOB on 9 September, down $22 from 26 August. In the United States, Northern Durum increased to $315 per tonne, equivalent to €271.55, compared with €258.30 a week earlier.

Available supply could limit the increase. Durum stocks are at their highest level in four marketing years and stand more than 20% above the opening of the 2025-2026 campaign, while production has increased in Turkey and North Africa. The uncertainty is therefore concentrated less on total global availability than on the volume of high-grade Canadian wheat suitable for premium pasta production.

Freight and energy add pressure downstream

Shipping remains another cost risk. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 3,507 points on 11 September, down 0.4% for the day and 1.90% from 7 September. Even after that decline, it was 19.33% higher over one month and 64.96% above its level a year earlier. The Panamax Index, which tracks vessels commonly used to move coal and grain, slipped 0.1% to 2,407 points.

Virgilio’s InItalia reported that pasta plants are simultaneously contending with higher energy, fuel and transport costs. Massimo Menna, president of the consortium protecting Pasta di Gragnano PGI and chief executive of Pasta Garofalo, told Corriere della Sera that interconnected grain markets tend to rise when major exports are disrupted. He cited the Russia-Ukraine conflict and wider international tensions as sources of concern, but said there was no basis yet for predicting the price of a packet of pasta in coming months.

Manufacturers invest while watching margins

Menna said pasta remains affordable and embedded in household consumption, with no sudden shifts in demand even during previous crises. Garofalo obtains most of its raw material from Italy, supplemented by supplies from the United States and Australia. That sourcing profile leaves the company exposed both to Italian grain quotations and to international quality, currency and freight movements.

Garofalo is also investing to reduce its energy-cost exposure. After installing a trigeneration plant, it is completing another capacity system and expanding photovoltaic facilities, aiming for about 1.5 megawatts of installed power. Menna identified lengthy permitting procedures as the main obstacle. For pasta producers, the immediate issue is whether energy savings and available inventories can absorb higher grain and logistics costs before pressure reaches wholesale contracts and supermarket shelves.