Italian almond output falls 29.7% as imports nearly match domestic production

Foreign supply closes the production gap

Italy is increasingly relying on imported almonds as domestic cultivation contracts despite expanding demand for nuts. According to Istat data published on September 4, 2026 and reported by QuiFinanza, Italian almond production fell 29.7% between 2006 and 2025. Imports moved in the opposite direction, rising 144.3% over the same period.

The two supply streams were almost equal in 2025. Italy imported 777,000 quintals of almonds, compared with 793,000 quintals harvested domestically. Imports were therefore equivalent to about 98% of national production, illustrating how deeply foreign supply has become embedded in the Italian market.

The shift is not simply the result of one weak harvest. Istat’s assessment points to a longer decline in the ability or willingness of farms to maintain almond acreage. Some businesses have reduced planted areas or progressively left crops considered insufficiently profitable as production costs and international competition increased.

Higher yields fail to offset falling output

Almond yields nevertheless increased 5.1% as national production declined. That combination suggests output is becoming concentrated among more efficient farms, while the total cultivated base continues to shrink. Productivity gains have not been large enough to compensate for the loss of production capacity.

Italy still has important almond-growing regions and varieties closely associated with its agricultural and culinary heritage. These qualities support a market for higher-value domestic almonds, but they do not provide the volumes needed by the wider food industry. The national supply chain can no longer meet growing demand using Italian output alone.

Almonds are sold directly as nuts but also serve as an ingredient for confectionery, gelato, spreads, bakery products and traditional foods. Processors require regular volumes and predictable specifications. When domestic agricultural output does not expand with industrial demand, sourcing abroad becomes an operational necessity rather than merely a price-based choice.

Nut demand strengthens the case for imports

Data presented by Ismea at Sigep in Rimini in January 2026 show the strength of the underlying market. Italian purchases of packaged nuts exceeded €1.1 billion in 2025, up 13% from 2024. Purchased volumes rose 6% and surpassed 89 million kilograms. The faster increase in spending than in volume also indicates that the sector’s value grew more rapidly than the quantity sold.

This expanding consumer and industrial market creates opportunities for processors and retailers, but it also widens the raw-material gap faced by domestic growers. Importers have become essential suppliers, while Italian producers must compete in a market where foreign almonds can cover large-volume requirements.

The emerging division is between Italian almonds positioned for premium uses and imported raw material serving broader industrial demand. Domestic varieties retain commercial value, but growers need to convert that differentiation into sufficient farm profitability if acreage is to stabilize. Higher yields alone have not reversed the decline.

For processors, near parity between imports and domestic production reduces the feasibility of relying exclusively on Italian almonds. For growers, the same figures underline the importance of quality premiums and routes to market that reward origin. Unless domestic output recovers, further growth in Italy’s nut market is likely to require continued access to overseas supply.