Iranian tomato paste price rises 57% in 40 days as raw tomato supply claims conflict

Price climbs in three stages

The price of tomato paste in Iran rose by about 57% in 40 days, intensifying scrutiny of raw material availability, factory pricing and margins in the country’s processing sector. Hamshahri Online and Eghtesad Afarin reported that the price increased from 210,000 tomans on 25 Mordad to 280,000 tomans on 19 Shahrivar, before reaching 329,000 tomans on 4 Mehr.

The first increase amounted to 70,000 tomans, or one-third of the initial price. A further 49,000 tomans was added by 4 Mehr. Across the full period, the increase was 119,000 tomans, leaving buyers paying roughly 57% more than 40 days earlier.

The reports do not specify a package size, brand, transaction level or whether the figures represent retail prices across the market. That limits comparisons between producers and sales channels, but the scale and speed of the reported increase have raised questions about whether movements in raw tomato costs can fully explain the change.

Processors and ministry offer different supply assessments

The Iran Canned Food Industries Association said in recent weeks that tomatoes had become scarcer and more expensive, while deliveries to factories had declined. It asked the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad to act to secure a stable supply of raw material for processors.

The ministry presented a different assessment. It said Iranian tomato production had reached 6.58 million tonnes and that processing industries faced no supply problem. The sources provide no regional harvest breakdown, factory intake figures or comparison with processing demand, making it impossible to reconcile the national production total with the association’s reports of reduced deliveries.

The distinction matters because total agricultural output does not necessarily show how much suitable produce reaches paste plants at the required time and price. Tomatoes may be distributed between fresh consumption and industrial processing, but the supplied reports do not quantify either channel. They also contain no figures for energy, packaging, labour, transport or financing costs, so those factors cannot be identified as confirmed drivers of the increase.

Export ban shifts attention to domestic pricing

Despite stating that supplies were adequate, the ministry subsequently prohibited exports of raw tomatoes until the end of the year. According to the reports, the measure was intended to regulate the domestic market, prevent a price surge and secure raw material for processing industries.

The ban indicates that access to raw tomatoes had become a policy concern, even though the ministry rejected the existence of a processing shortage. Restricting exports could retain more produce in Iran, but the source material provides no export volumes, destination markets or farmgate prices with which to estimate the measure’s impact on factories, growers or foreign buyers.

Both publications argue that the 57% rise cannot be justified solely by referring to tomato supply problems. They call for closer examination of pricing methods and producer margins, greater disclosure from the industry association and regulatory review of whether shortage warnings were used to support excessive price increases. The available evidence establishes the price movement, the competing supply claims and the export restriction, but it does not isolate how much of the increase came from tomatoes, processing expenses or distribution. For manufacturers and buyers, greater transparency on factory intake, input costs, package specifications and wholesale and retail prices will be necessary to determine where the additional 119,000 tomans entered the value chain.