Iran's per-capita red-meat consumption falls to 5.2 kilograms as formal supply declines

Per-capita red-meat consumption in Iran has fallen to 5.2 kilograms a year from 14.3 kilograms in the middle of the 1380s on the Iranian calendar, the Iranian news agency Nournews reported. The lower figure covers 1403, the Iranian year that ended in March 2025, and implies a cumulative decline of about 64 percent, or 9.1 kilograms per person.

Nournews frames the drop as a forced change in dietary patterns driven by the rising cost of food rather than a voluntary shift in preferences. The agency also reports that officially recorded supply of red meat has fallen in 1405, the Iranian year that began in March 2026, indicating that the contraction has carried into the current season.

From 14.3 kilograms to 5.2

At 5.2 kilograms a year, an average consumer in Iran eats about 100 grams of red meat a week, or under 15 grams a day. In the mid-1380s the same consumer ate close to 275 grams a week. The gap of 9.1 kilograms per person is demand that has either left the market entirely or moved to other proteins.

For the supply chain, a change of this scale resets the arithmetic. Feedlots, slaughterhouses, cold storage and processing lines dimensioned for a market of 14.3 kilograms per head now serve one of 5.2 kilograms. Nournews does not publish tonnage figures or a split between domestic slaughter and imports, so the absolute volume loss cannot be derived from the report.

Formal supply slips in 1405

The second data point concerns supply rather than demand: officially recorded supply of red meat declined in 1405. That is the channel through which regulated slaughter, licensed distribution and price monitoring operate. The report does not quantify the decline or indicate how much of it reflects lower domestic output as opposed to smaller import volumes.

• 14.3 kilograms — annual red-meat consumption per person, mid-1380s of the Iranian calendar
• 5.2 kilograms — annual consumption per person in 1403, the year that ended in March 2025
• About 64 percent — the cumulative decline over that period, equal to 9.1 kilograms per person
• 1405 — the current Iranian year, in which officially recorded supply fell

Forced substitution at the table

The consumption figure describes substitution, not abstinence. Households that cannot afford beef or lamb at prevailing prices buy something else, and Nournews describes the change as compelled by cost rather than chosen. The report does not specify which proteins have absorbed the displaced demand.

Substitution on this scale is rarely symmetrical. Red meat carries the highest unit cost among the main animal proteins, which makes it the first item cut when household budgets tighten and usually the last restored when they recover. Two decades of decline point to a durable reset of the consumption baseline rather than a cyclical dip.

What it means for producers and traders

Producers face the weaker side of the equation. Demand of 5.2 kilograms per person defines what the market can pay for, not what it would consume at lower prices. Herd owners, feedlot operators and processors are carrying capacity against a per-capita demand base roughly a third of its former level, while the official supply channel is shrinking in the current year.

For exporters of beef, lamb and live animals, Iran's population size overstates the addressable volume. Purchasing power, not headcount, sets the ceiling, and landed price decides whether a shipment clears. Nournews provides no price series, trade volumes or tariff details, so the report supports conclusions about the direction of consumption and formal supply, not about the size of any import opportunity.