IGC raises global grain production forecast as wheat and barley offset corn losses
The International Grains Council raised its 2026-2027 global grain production forecast by 4 million tonnes to 2.420 billion tonnes. Improved wheat and barley prospects offset lower corn and sorghum estimates, but total output is still expected to fall 3% year on year.
Global forecast rises by 4 million tonnes
The International Grains Council raised its forecast for global grain production in the 2026-2027 marketing year to 2.420 billion tonnes, La France Agricole reported. The estimate published on September 17, 2026, is 4 million tonnes above the council’s August projection.
The upward revision reflects improved harvest expectations for wheat and barley. According to the IGC, those increases are sufficient to offset reduced forecasts for corn and sorghum within the overall grain balance.
Despite the monthly upgrade, global grain production is still forecast to decline by 3% compared with 2025-2026. The IGC linked the annual contraction to weaker yields in Europe, South America, North America and Oceania.
The figures therefore point to a market with greater expected supply than assumed in August, but less grain than in the preceding season. The regional yield deterioration also means that the effect will not be distributed evenly among producers and buyers.
Wheat output improves as trade slows
The IGC increased its world wheat production forecast to 820 million tonnes from 817 million tonnes in August. Projected wheat consumption remained unchanged at 826 million tonnes, leaving anticipated use 6 million tonnes above production.
The trade outlook moved in the opposite direction. The council cut projected global wheat trade to 201 million tonnes from 202.6 million tonnes, citing major disruption to exports from the Black Sea and exceptionally slow international flows so far.
The combination of higher production and lower projected trade highlights the distinction between grain availability and grain accessibility. Additional wheat may be harvested globally, but interruptions along a major export corridor can still restrict the volumes reaching importing markets.
For exporters outside the Black Sea region, slow flows may create opportunities to cover demand where logistics and commercial terms permit. Importers, meanwhile, face greater execution risk even though the global wheat harvest estimate has improved.
Corn cuts reduce the stock cushion
World corn production was revised down again, to 1.301 billion tonnes from 1.305 billion tonnes in the August forecast. The 4-million-tonne reduction contrasts with the improved outlook for wheat and barley.
Europe accounted for part of the downgrade. Its corn harvest forecast was lowered to 46.4 million tonnes from 48.5 million tonnes, a reduction of 2.1 million tonnes in one month.
The forecast for the United States was cut to 401.3 million tonnes from 406.7 million tonnes. That 5.4-million-tonne revision is larger than the net reduction in the global estimate, indicating that changes elsewhere partly offset the lower US and European projections.
With corn trade and use changing little from August, the IGC expects ending stocks to decline by 4 million tonnes to 289 million tonnes. The smaller inventory buffer could make the corn market more sensitive to subsequent harvest revisions, while the weak pace of Black Sea wheat exports remains an important constraint for grain buyers.
