ICCO projects Indonesian cocoa output at 220,000 tonnes in 2025/26

Production forecast rises

ICCO projects Indonesia’s cocoa production will increase to 220,000 tonnes in the 2025/26 season, according to Indonesian publication Kontan. The forecast points to a stronger harvest from one of the countries supplying cocoa to the international market.

Kontan attributed the expected increase to the high cocoa prices recorded in 2024. Those prices encouraged Indonesian farmers to improve yields, creating the conditions for higher production in the 2025/26 crop year. The available report did not specify the previous production estimate or quantify the expected year-on-year gain.

The distinction matters for market participants. The 220,000-tonne figure establishes the projected scale of supply, but without a comparable figure for the preceding season it does not show how much additional cocoa could become available. Buyers, processors and traders will therefore need to assess the forecast alongside subsequent crop and delivery data.

Prices change incentives on farms

Higher prices can give growers a stronger reason to direct labour and resources toward raising output. Kontan’s report indicates that this response is expected to appear through improved yields rather than identifying an expansion in planted area. That makes farm-level crop performance central to whether production reaches the ICCO projection.

The timing also shows the delayed effect of price signals in agricultural markets. Prices rose in 2024, while the projected production response concerns the 2025/26 season. For cocoa producers, the gap reflects the time required for efforts to improve harvest results to influence marketed supply.

The forecast is relevant to companies sourcing Indonesian beans and to domestic processors planning raw-material needs. A larger crop could provide more cocoa for sale, but the source material does not state how the projected output will be divided between domestic use and exports. It also provides no forecast for prices in 2025/26.

Implications for the cocoa market

For the wider cocoa market, the Indonesian projection is a supply indicator rather than a complete outlook. Actual market effects will depend on whether farmers achieve the expected yields and how much of the crop reaches commercial buyers. Production volume alone does not determine the quantity available to individual processors or importing markets.

The forecast may nevertheless influence procurement planning. Traders and processors can use the 220,000-tonne projection as a reference when evaluating future Indonesian availability, while producers will watch whether prices continue to justify efforts to lift yields. The report establishes a direct link between the high prices of 2024 and the expected supply response.

Attention will now turn to evidence from the 2025/26 harvest. Confirmation of higher yields would support ICCO’s projection and indicate that the 2024 price increase produced a measurable farm response. A weaker result would show that price incentives alone were insufficient to deliver the anticipated volume.