Higher Wheat Prices Increase Food Security Pressure on Arab Economies

Black Sea disruption raises import costs

Arab economies are facing renewed pressure from higher wheat prices as geopolitical tensions, shipping disruption and uncertainty around Black Sea exports increase the cost of securing a staple food. Jamaran, citing an Al Jazeera report, says the region’s dependence on imported grain leaves government budgets and consumers exposed to international market volatility.

Reuters reported that wheat cargoes scheduled for October delivery were priced 25% higher than before the tightening of grain supply and disruption of Black Sea transit linked to the Russia-Ukraine war. The corridor connects Asia and Europe and is central to agricultural trade with densely populated markets. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than one-quarter of global wheat trade.

World Bank data released in September 2026 put US wheat prices at $310-$330 per tonne. The price of grain is only one part of the import bill: higher energy and freight costs, combined with depreciation of local currencies, can amplify the burden for importing countries.

Egypt carries the region’s largest exposure

Egypt faces the greatest pressure among major Arab buyers because of its dependence on Black Sea wheat. The Food and Agriculture Organization expects the country could import 13.5 million tonnes, almost 8% above its usual average. That requirement remains substantial even as domestic wheat production is expected to reach a historical level of 10 million tonnes.

FAO projections put Algeria’s import requirement at about 8.5 million tonnes, slightly below its normal average. Morocco may need around 5 million tonnes, approximately 15% below its five-year average. Saudi Arabia’s requirement is estimated at about 4 million tonnes, nearly 3% above the five-year average, while Iraq’s imports in the 2026/2027 season are forecast at about 2.2 million tonnes, around 10% below normal.

Arab countries import approximately 56% of the calories they consume from cereals, with wheat providing the largest share. A World Bank study found that some countries in the region depend on imports for 100% of their wheat needs. Population growth, rising incomes and climate change are expected to deepen this dependence, particularly where arable land and water are scarce.

Subsidies shift the shock to public finances

Economist Salim Besbes told Al Jazeera Net that the wheat shock could add 1-2% to inflation in many Arab economies, depending on subsidy structures and government policy. In Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Jordan, subsidised bread and basic goods may shield consumers from the immediate increase, but governments then absorb much of the cost through higher subsidy bills and wider budget deficits. In less protected markets, global prices can pass more quickly into flour, bread and other food prices.

Demand for wheat is unlikely to fall proportionately because bread, flour and pasta are staples. Lower-income households may instead reduce spending on education, healthcare, transport and other goods. The most exposed countries combine high import dependence, limited fiscal capacity, low reserves and weak domestic production.

Supply security takes priority

Policy options identified in the report include diversifying suppliers, expanding strategic stocks and supporting domestic production. Governments with broad subsidy systems also face the task of targeting assistance toward lower-income consumers without allowing rising costs to destabilise public finances.

Economists cited by Al Jazeera expect continued volatility. Weather risks, drought, extreme events and disruptions to international trade could keep prices elevated, while renewed increases in energy and fertiliser costs could restrict supply further. For Arab importers, procurement flexibility, reserve management and reliable shipping access will determine how much of the global shock reaches consumers.