Global Pea Harvest Set to Fall 14% to 15.7 Million Tonnes, IGC Forecasts

Global Pea Output Set to Fall to 15.7 Million Tonnes

World pea production is on course to decline sharply this season, according to the International Grains Council (IGC), whose forecast was reported by the agency Zerno On-Line. The Council expects the global crop to fall to 15.7 million tonnes, a drop of 13.5% from the peak reached in the previous season. The contraction reflects smaller harvests in two of the world's leading suppliers.

Russia and Canada, both central to the international pea trade, will gather less than they did a year earlier, the IGC said. Together the two countries account for a substantial share of globally traded peas, so lower output at these origins tightens the balance for importers that depend on them.

Consumption and Stocks Edge Lower

With supply falling into deficit, the IGC expects both consumption and inventories to ease. Global pea consumption is projected at 16.1 million tonnes, down 1.1% from the previous season. Because demand is set to exceed production, the market will draw on carryover supplies to bridge the gap.

Ending stocks are forecast to fall to 5.2 million tonnes, a decline of 7.1%. That drawdown leaves a thinner cushion heading into the next crop year and reduces the buffer available should weather or logistics disrupt the coming harvests in the main producing regions.

Trade Contracts on Weaker South Asian Demand

International trade in peas is also set to shrink. The IGC projects trade volume at 5.7 million tonnes, a fall of 3.4%, which it attributes to softer demand in South Asia. The region is one of the largest buyers of peas, and its reduced purchases set the tone for the whole market.

The combination of smaller production and weaker demand shapes the season as a broad contraction across the entire pea complex. The fall in stocks remains the figure market participants will watch most closely, as it defines the safety margin heading into the future.