Global palm oil exports forecast to fall to 48–49 million tonnes in 2026/27
Oil World forecasts global palm oil exports at 48–49 million tonnes in 2026/27, down from 50.5 million tonnes in 2025/26. Slower production growth and rising use of palm oil for biofuel are reducing export availability and increasing reliance on other vegetable oils.
Exports remain below their historical peak
Global palm oil exports are expected to decline to between 48 million and 49 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to an Oil World forecast reported by ZOL.ru. The projected volume compares with 50.5 million tonnes in 2025/26, implying a year-on-year reduction of between 1.5 million and 2.5 million tonnes.
The outlook extends a retreat from the record 55.4 million tonnes exported in 2018/19. At the upper end of the latest forecast, global shipments would be 6.4 million tonnes below that peak. At the lower end, the difference would reach 7.4 million tonnes, illustrating how the volume available to international buyers has narrowed over several seasons.
Production growth slows as domestic use rises
Oil World links the decline primarily to slower growth in palm oil production and a substantial increase in domestic consumption for biofuel. The trend is most pronounced in Indonesia, the report said, but is also visible in Malaysia, Thailand and Central American countries. Greater use within producing markets leaves less oil available for export even when total output continues to increase.
Supply growth is also being constrained by a slower expansion of oil-palm acreage. At the same time, the rate of replanting on older estates remains insufficient. An ageing plantation profile and problems with palm diseases have further weakened the pace at which production can grow.
These constraints have different time horizons. Biofuel consumption can absorb exportable supplies within a marketing year, while slow planting and replanting affect productive capacity over a longer period. For producers, improving yields on existing land therefore becomes more important when the expansion of cultivated area is limited. For traders and processors, the key issue is the smaller buffer between production, domestic demand and exports.
Other vegetable oils take a larger role
The global market is increasingly relying on soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil to compensate for reduced palm oil availability, according to the report. This substitution is encouraging expansion of the planted area devoted to the corresponding oilseed crops in major production regions.
The shift matters because palm oil competes with these oils across food processing and other industrial uses. A reduction in palm oil shipments can redirect demand toward alternative oils, linking the outlook for palm-producing countries more closely to soybean, sunflower and rapeseed harvests. Importers and processors will need to assess availability across the wider vegetable-oil complex rather than treat palm oil as an isolated market.
Oil World's figures do not provide a price forecast, but a smaller export pool would leave buyers more exposed to production setbacks and changes in domestic biofuel use. The projected decline from 50.5 million tonnes to 48–49 million tonnes is therefore relevant beyond palm oil exporters: it may influence oilseed planting decisions, procurement strategies and competition among vegetable oils during the 2026/27 season.
