Global oilseed output growth forecast at five-year low despite acreage expansion
Oil World forecasts production of 10 major oilseeds at 705.9 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 14.1 million tonnes but marking the smallest increase in five years. Lower average yields and higher input costs are limiting the benefit of a 9.6 million-hectare expansion in planted area.
More land delivers limited production growth
Global production of the 10 main oilseed crops is forecast to rise by 14.1 million tonnes to 705.9 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to Oil World data reported by APK-Inform. Despite the increase, analysts expect the smallest annual production gain in five years.
The restrained outlook comes even as the global planted area expands by 9.6 million hectares. Average yields are expected to decline in India, North America, the European Union and Australia, reducing the additional output generated by the larger area. Oil World also points to sharp increases in production costs, particularly for fertilizer, crop-protection products and diesel fuel. These pressures raise the cost of maintaining yields and may affect planting and input decisions across the major producing regions.
Soybean and sunflower lead the increase
Global soybean production is projected to reach 440.3 million tonnes, an increase of 14.1 million tonnes from the previous season. Sunflower seed output is expected to rise by 6.4 million tonnes to 64.3 million tonnes, while rapeseed production is forecast to increase by 1.1 million tonnes to 87.3 million tonnes. Because the projected gains for these three crops exceed the increase for all 10 oilseeds combined, the figures indicate lower aggregate production among the other seven crops.
The concentration of growth in soybean and sunflower seed will matter for processors selecting between available feedstocks. The expected decline in global palm oil production and export supplies is also set to increase the market’s dependence on other vegetable oils through the end of the current year and into 2027. That creates an additional demand channel for soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil, while tighter yields may limit the pace at which seed supplies can respond.
Crushing continues to expand
Oilseed processing increased by 23.6 million tonnes in 2025/26 and is expected to continue growing strongly for a fourth consecutive year in 2026/27. Demand for vegetable oil and meal remains the principal driver. Soybean crushing is forecast at 384.3 million tonnes, up 7.2 million tonnes year on year. Rapeseed processing is expected to rise by 3.7 million tonnes to 85.7 million tonnes, and sunflower seed processing by 4.9 million tonnes to 56.85 million tonnes. Processing of the other seven oilseeds is projected to decline by 0.9 million tonnes to 73.6 million tonnes.
The largest processing gains are expected in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine and China. Growth in Chinese soybean crushing is forecast to slow to 1.2 million tonnes in 2026/27. By contrast, China’s rapeseed and canola processing could recover if the projected substantial increase in Canadian canola imports materializes. For producers and crushers, the central issue is the widening gap between rapid processing growth and the weakest oilseed production increase in five years. The balance will depend on yields, input use and the availability of export supplies across the main origins.
