European grain prices rebound as weaker euro and Black Sea risks support wheat
European grain markets recovered after late-September weakness as the euro’s decline improved the competitiveness of EU wheat and uncertainty persisted over Black Sea exports. US corn stocks, weaker rapeseed processing and currency pressure on imported soybean meal produced diverging signals across the wider market.
Currency and Black Sea risk revive wheat
European grain prices returned to positive territory at the start of October after testing technical support levels during the final days of September 2026. La France Agricole said the rebound was driven partly by the euro’s accelerating depreciation against the dollar, which increased the competitiveness of European wheat and supported Euronext prices. Traders are also assessing EU soft-wheat export prospects and the region’s expected import requirements for corn and oilseeds during the 2026/2027 season.
Euronext’s December 2026 wheat contract had fallen to its lowest level since mid-August before recovering. Weekly price movements remained wide, at about €10 per tonne. The market received further support from the lack of progress on an agreement involving American or Turkish representatives and Russian and Ukrainian counterparts that could secure grain exports. Prospects for production in Australia and Argentina provide some reassurance, but several importing countries are already seeking to secure supplies before winter.
French wheat gains a price advantage
French exporters hope shipments to non-EU destinations will accelerate in October. Romanian and Bulgarian soft wheat rose above $280 per tonne FOB late in the week, according to La France Agricole, leaving those Black Sea EU origins $5-$10 per tonne more expensive than current French offers. This price gap, combined with the weaker euro, could improve opportunities for French sellers, although uncertainty over Russian and Ukrainian port flows remains a major source of volatility.
Corn delivered a contrasting signal. Quarterly figures from the US Department of Agriculture showed US stocks above 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from a year earlier. The announcement reinforced expectations that 2025/2026 ending stocks could be revised upward. Chicago’s December 2026 corn contract fell to around $5.00 per bushel, losing nearly 5.5% over the week, with profit-taking and fund position adjustments adding to the decline.
Corn and rapeseed remain under pressure
Cheaper US corn widened its discount to European supply and contributed to a weekly decline of €5 per tonne in European prices. Euronext’s November 2026 contract retreated to around €265 per tonne after trading above €275 the previous week. Nearby prices nevertheless remained above later contracts, indicating continued tightness as French production estimates deteriorate. FranceAgriMer reported that more than 67% of the French area had been harvested, with yields confirming earlier disappointment.
European rapeseed also weakened alongside rapeseed oil. Oil prices fell below €1,230 per tonne on a Rotterdam-equivalent basis for immediate deliveries through year-end and below €1,200 for early-2027 delivery. Rapeseed traded around €540 per tonne FOB Moselle, approximately €10 lower on the week, while Euronext’s November 2026 contract tested support near €535. Later contracts remained above €550 per tonne.
Fediol data had already shown year-on-year weakness in August crushing activity, and September processing was expected to decline because low river levels disrupted deliveries to some European plants. Meanwhile, soybean meal at Montoir eased to about €440 per tonne from €453 a week earlier. European importers received less benefit from lower US meal prices because the euro fell below $1.1250, its weakest level since May 2025, raising the local-currency cost of imported commodities.
