European fertilizer prices surge, threatening 2027 crop yields
Nitrogen fertilizer prices in Europe are up 53% year-on-year and phosphate 29%, according to Poland's FBZPR. Farmers expect yields to drop 10-15% in 2027 once pre-CBAM stockpiles run out, hitting winter wheat, potatoes, maize and rapeseed.
European fertilizer prices have risen sharply over the past year, and farm organizations warn the cost shock could cut crop yields by as much as 15% in 2027, according to Poland's Federation of Branch Unions of Agricultural Producers (FBZPR).
Citing data presented in early July to the "Cereals" working group of COPA-COGECA, the European umbrella body for farm unions and cooperatives, FBZPR said nitrogen fertilizer prices climbed 53% year-on-year, while phosphate fertilizers rose 29%.
What is driving the increase
According to farmer.pl, the two nutrient groups moved for different reasons. Phosphate prices began rising in March with the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf. Nitrogen fertilizers had been climbing earlier, driven by the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — the bloc's border carbon levy, which now also covers fertilizer imports. For an input chain that still depends heavily on imported nutrients, both shocks feed directly into farm costs.
Why 2027 is the pressure point
FBZPR said preliminary analysis suggests the fertilizer crisis will not materially affect this year's harvest. Anticipating additional CBAM-related costs, farmers built up stocks in November and December of last year. Those reserves, however, will not stretch across another season, so the real effects are expected at the 2027 harvest.
A COPA-COGECA survey of member organizations in 14 countries found that two-thirds of respondents fear problems with fertilizer availability in 2027. Farmers expect yields to fall by an average of 10-15% next year, including about 12% for winter wheat and 14-16% for potatoes, maize and rapeseed — crops that together anchor much of Europe's grain and oilseed exports.
The strain is already visible in France, where a separate survey found 81% of farmers worried about the 2027 harvest and 71% holding no fertilizer stocks for the coming season.
Brussels' response
Farmers most often called for lower fertilizer import costs, financial support and regulatory flexibility. In May, the European Commission presented a Fertiliser Action Plan promising financial aid for farmers, a significant boost to the agricultural reserve, a new liquidity mechanism and greater flexibility under the Common Agricultural Policy. The plan also set out longer-term steps to strengthen EU fertilizer production, reduce import dependence and expand the use of organic and bio-based fertilizers. In June, the Commission proposed a €540 million support package for farmers hit by the crisis.
Justyna Jasińska, president of the Polish Association of Cereal Plant Producers, welcomed the plan as a step in the right direction but said that without a systemic solution to the costs CBAM imposes on farmers, lasting improvement is hard to expect. She added that the group would keep pressing to make Polish cereal producers' voice heard in the discussion.
