EU milk output rises 4% as farmgate prices fall and energy costs climb
EU cow’s milk deliveries rose 4% in the first four months of 2026, increasing butter and skimmed milk powder production. Meanwhile, the average farmgate milk price fell 19.6% year on year in May, while feed and energy costs increased.
More milk pushes EU prices lower
European Union cow’s milk deliveries increased 4% in the first four months of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025, according to European Commission data reported by Haniotika Nea. The additional raw material lifted butter production by 9.7% and skimmed milk powder output by 11.7%. Whole milk powder production moved in the opposite direction, declining 3.3%.
The expansion came as the average EU price for raw cow’s milk fell to €42.63 per 100 kilograms in May, equivalent to about 42.6 euro cents per kilogram. That was 0.3% below April and 19.6% below May 2025, when the price was close to €53 per 100 kilograms. The Commission’s provisional estimate for June points to a further monthly decline of 0.7%, to €42.34 per 100 kilograms.
Global supply adds to pressure
EU farmers are not facing higher supply only within the bloc. Milk production also increased by 3.5% in New Zealand, 2.8% in the United States and 0.2% in Australia. The simultaneous expansion across major exporting regions increases competition among processors and suppliers and limits the support that international demand can provide to European farmgate prices.
Costs are moving against producers. In week 31 of 2026, feed costs were 2.3% above the average of the preceding four weeks, while energy costs were 12.4% higher. Brent crude reached $91.8 per barrel on August 2. The Commission’s latest detailed margin data are dated April 16 and therefore do not fully capture the more recent increase in energy expenses.
Exports absorb growing dairy volumes
Exports helped remove part of the additional output during the first quarter of 2026. EU butter exports to the United States increased 85%, while shipments of skimmed milk powder to Egypt more than doubled, rising 126%. The United Kingdom remained the EU’s largest cheese market, taking 111,640 tonnes.
These flows provide an outlet for processors with growing butter and milk powder volumes, but strong exports have not prevented the sharp fall in the average milk price. The available datasets also cover different periods: the Commission dashboard was updated on August 5, while complete production figures extend only through April, external trade data through March and milk prices through June.
Greek prices diverge from the EU average
Greece followed a different price pattern. Its estimated cow’s milk price was €54.78 per 100 kilograms in May, up about 1% from €54.22 a year earlier. It was approximately €12.2 per 100 kilograms, or almost 29%, above the EU average. The Commission classifies the May Greek figure as an estimate.
The premium does not necessarily translate into stronger profitability. Greek farms are generally smaller and more fragmented, face higher transport requirements and depend heavily on purchased feed and energy. Cow’s milk data also provide only a partial view of the national dairy industry because sheep and goat milk are important inputs for feta and other protected-designation cheeses. Across the EU, processors gain more raw-material availability, while farmers face a combination of weaker selling prices and rising operating costs.
