Milk and cream market in New Zealand

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the New Zealand milk and cream market volume grew steadily from 30 310 thousand tonnes to 30 460 thousand tonnes. This stability was underpinned by an export‑oriented processing focus, where whole milk powder accounted for 45% of all dairy export volume in 2019. Fonterra’s continued dominance, controlling over 50% of processing revenue, helped maintain moderate market concentration.

Market volume then contracted to 29 206 thousand tonnes by 2022. The decline coincided with amendments to the Dairy Industry Restructuring Act (DIRA) that set a June 2024 deadline for Fonterra to supply independent processors under regulated terms, temporarily affecting supply‑chain dynamics. Additionally, the 2022 update to the Raw‑milk for sale to consumers Regulated Control Scheme tightened labelling and packaging rules for domestic raw‑milk sales, which likely constrained volumes.

A partial recovery to 29 636 thousand tonnes occurred in 2023. Subsequent developments included Tatua Dairy’s NZ$85 million investment to double cream‑product capacity by August 2025 and Fonterra’s added shift at its Eltham site for IQF mozzarella, signalling a shift toward higher‑value fresh products. Strong global demand, especially from China, continued to support export values, while legislative changes such as the 2025 export‑licence allocation reform and the EU Packaging and Waste Regulation began shaping future market conditions.

Production milk and cream in New Zealand

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, New Zealand ranked 6th globally in milk and cream production.

Top producers of milk and cream, 2018-2021

World map of production of milk and cream, 2018-2021

New Zealand's milk and cream production saw a two-year increase before declining. In 2021, production reached 30 027 K t, marking a slight decrease of 2.6% compared to the previous year. The highest production level was recorded in 2020 at 30 831 K t, with the largest annual increase of 0.4% also occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of production in New Zealand in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

New Zealand's milk and cream production value increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, the output was valued at 59 414 M $ US, representing a year-over-year gain of 15.5%. Over the 2018-2021 period, production value grew by 26.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in New Zealand in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports milk and cream from New Zealand

Exports in kind, K t

In 2021, New Zealand's milk and cream exports reached 438.9 K t, showing a 16.9% increase year-over-year. Over the 2018-2021 period, exports grew by 30.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.4%. The largest decline occurred in 2020, with a drop of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from New Zealand in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, China consistently accounted for 73.1% of New Zealand's total milk and cream exports in volume, indicating a high concentration on this market, while the remaining share was distributed among other countries.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from New Zealand in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

New Zealand's milk and cream export value increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, exports stood at 868.4 M $ US, representing a sharp rise of 38.6% compared to 2020. Between 2018 and 2021, export value grew by 69%, equating to an annualized rate of 19.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from New Zealand in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

During 2018-2021, China played a leading role in New Zealand's milk and cream exports in value terms, accounting for 76.8% of total flows, with the remainder distributed across other partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from New Zealand in value, 2018-2021

Imports milk and cream to New Zealand

Imports in kind, K t

After a two-year increase, New Zealand's milk and cream imports declined. In 2021, imports amounted to 2.5 K t, equivalent to a sudden decrease of 47.5% year-over-year. Between 2018 and 2021, imports fell by 23.6%, with an annualized rate of decline of 8.6%. The highest import volume was recorded in 2020 at 4.7 K t, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 at 36.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to New Zealand in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Australia concentrated most of New Zealand's milk and cream imports in volume, taking 82.4% of total flows, with the rest fragmented among other markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to New Zealand in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year rise, New Zealand's milk and cream imports declined. In 2021, imports amounted to 5.7 M $ US, indicating a sharp reduction of 33.0% compared to the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, import value decreased by 17.5%, with an annualized rate of decline of 6.2%. The highest value was recorded in 2020 at 8.5 M $ US, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 at 22.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to New Zealand in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Over the 2018-2021 period, Australia and the Netherlands were the dominant suppliers of milk and cream to New Zealand, together accounting for 83.1% of total imports in value terms, with other destinations each holding relatively small shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to New Zealand in value, 2018-2021