El Nino Drives India Food Prices Higher: Sugar Up 40%, Maize 30%, Onions 50%
El Nino conditions have begun to hit Indian crops, with sugar prices up 40 percent year on year and maize about 30 percent, according to Live Hindustan. Higher feed costs are feeding into a poultry industry worth 2.6 trillion rupees, while onions and ginger have risen 50 and 70 percent.
Food prices in India are rising as El Nino conditions take hold, with sugar, eggs and chicken leading the increases, Live Hindustan reported. The publication said the weather pattern has already damaged crops and that the effect is now reaching household budgets.
During El Nino, surface water in the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. That weakens the monsoon and makes rainfall erratic, and can create drought-like conditions in India. Higher temperatures also cut soil moisture, reducing yields of kharif crops. Meteorologists have warned that this year the strongest El Nino of the century is setting in, and Live Hindustan reported that it is expected to peak by the end of the year.
Sugar up 40 percent in a year
Sugar prices have risen 40 percent year on year. Live Hindustan attributes the move to lower cane yields caused by excessive rainfall and fungal disease last year, compounded by ethanol blending in petrol and by exports. Ahead of the festival season, sugar moved from 49 rupees per kilogram to 65 rupees per kilogram in August. Prices have since stabilised.
The outlook for cane is not improving. A shortfall in rainfall could leave sugarcane output lower in 2026-27.
Maize is the next pressure point
Maize output is also expected to come in lower this year. Prices have already risen by roughly 30 percent, and the effect is visible in the market. If the crop falls the way sugarcane output has fallen, prices of these items could rise further, Live Hindustan said. A weaker maize crop would push animal feed costs up, raise the cost of poultry farming and feed directly into egg and chicken prices.
India's poultry industry was worth 2.6 trillion rupees in 2025. Maize and soybean meal are the main feed inputs, so both sit at the centre of the cost equation for producers. Rice and soybean are also at the centre of the supply concern.
Ethanol policy adds to the squeeze
About 25 percent of India's ethanol is made from sugarcane, with the rest produced from grain, mainly maize. Sales of E-20 petrol became mandatory on 1 April. Despite the drop in sugar output, more than 3 million tonnes went into ethanol production from sugarcane in 2025-26, according to Live Hindustan.
Given the level of sugar demand, cane-based ethanol production is set to be reduced next season, which shifts the load onto maize. That is the same crop now expected to come in short, which points to further price pressure rather than relief.
Half of rural spending goes on food
The increases extend well beyond sugar and poultry. Reported price moves across the food basket include:
- Sugar: up 40 percent year on year
- Maize: up about 30 percent
- Onions: up 50 percent
- Ginger: up 70 percent
- Chicken and eggs: rising
The burden falls unevenly. In some rural households roughly half of monthly spending goes on food, and in cities the share is close to 40 percent. At those levels, a sharp move in staple prices leaves households little room to adjust other than by cutting volumes, which in turn feeds back into demand for poultry and other higher-value foods.
