Crude Palm Oil Forecast to Stay Above 4,700 Ringgit a Tonne Through End-2026

Forecast sets a firm price threshold

Crude palm oil prices are expected to remain above 4,700 ringgit ($1,154) per metric tonne in October and through the end of 2026, according to Kontan. The forecast points to an extended period of firm pricing rather than a brief movement above that threshold.

The available report does not identify the forecaster or provide a detailed balance sheet covering production, inventories, consumption or trade. It therefore offers a price expectation, but not the numerical supply-and-demand assumptions behind it. Market participants will need to test the projection against subsequent evidence from producing regions and major consuming markets.

Supply and demand must remain tightly balanced

For crude palm oil to hold above 4,700 ringgit per tonne for the stated period, supply would need to remain sufficiently constrained relative to demand. That does not necessarily require an outright shortage. Limited growth in available output, resilient consumption or a reluctance among sellers to release inventories could each support prices, while a combination of those conditions would reinforce the forecast.

The principal risk to the projection would be a supply response large enough to loosen the market. Higher production or faster inventory accumulation would give buyers more negotiating room and could pull prices below the forecast threshold. Weaker consumption could produce the same result. Because the report provides no volumes for output, stocks or demand, these variables remain conditions to monitor rather than confirmed explanations.

Buyers face a longer period of cost pressure

A sustained price above 4,700 ringgit, equivalent in the report to $1,154 per metric tonne, would keep crude palm oil procurement expensive for processors and other vegetable-oil users. Importers would have to decide how much volume to secure in advance and how much exposure to leave for spot purchases. Processors would also need to judge whether higher raw-material costs could be passed through to customers without weakening demand.

For producers and sellers, the forecast implies continued support for revenue per tonne, provided they have sufficient output available for sale. Traders would remain focused on the durability of the price floor and on any evidence that supply is expanding faster than consumption. The conversion between 4,700 ringgit and $1,154 also highlights currency exposure: international buyers may face a different effective cost depending on exchange-rate movements, even if the ringgit-denominated benchmark stays above the projected level.