China could challenge Brazil in chicken export markets within a decade, Rabobank says
China could become a significant competitor to Brazil in chicken markets across the Middle East, Asia and Africa within ten years, according to Rabobank analyst Chenjun Pan. Rising domestic production and limited Chinese demand for breast meat are creating larger exportable surpluses.
Production growth creates an exportable surplus
China could emerge as a competitor to Brazil in major chicken markets, including the Middle East, within the next ten years, Rabobank analyst Chenjun Pan told Reuters. The forecast follows China's transition to a net chicken exporter in 2025, reflecting rapid growth in domestic poultry production and a widening surplus of products that have limited demand at home.
According to Rabobank, Chinese chicken production increased by about 7% in 2025 and by more than 9% year on year in the first half of 2026. That expansion is producing additional volumes of cuts such as chicken breast, which Chinese consumers rarely eat. Export markets provide processors with an outlet for these parts and may improve carcass utilization as the industry scales up.
China enters markets served by Brazil
China shipped slightly more than 1 million metric tonnes of chicken in 2025, according to data from Brazilian meat producers' association ABPA cited by Reuters. That made the country the world's fifth-largest chicken exporter. Brazil remains the leading global exporter and is also the main destination for Brazilian chicken shipments, creating an unusual relationship in which China is simultaneously a major customer and a developing competitor.
Pan said competition could take shape in the Middle East, Asia and Africa over the coming decade. Chinese chicken already reaches Russia, Hong Kong, North Korea and countries in the Middle East. Further production growth could place Chinese suppliers against Brazilian exporters in markets where buyers are sensitive to price, product mix, freight costs and supply reliability.
Health rules limit access to premium destinations
China does not currently compete with Brazil in the European Union, Japan or South Korea because those markets do not accept chicken vaccinated against avian influenza. This regulatory divide limits the immediate reach of Chinese exporters and protects part of Brazil's market position. Expansion will therefore depend heavily on destinations that accept China's animal-health system and on whether Beijing can secure additional market approvals.
The production drive has roots in the African swine fever crisis of 2019-2021, after which Beijing promoted chicken output to reduce dependence on pork. That policy helped build capacity, but continued growth is now creating export pressure. For producers and processors, overseas sales offer a way to absorb cuts that are less popular domestically; for established exporters, China's entry adds a large-scale supplier to an already competitive market.
The pace of the challenge will depend on production costs, disease management, processing standards and access to importing countries. Brazil retains a leading position, broad customer relationships and access to markets closed to vaccinated Chinese poultry. China, however, has moved from balancing domestic protein supply to shipping more than 1 million tonnes abroad, giving traders and importers reason to monitor its prices and product availability more closely.
