China and Azerbaijan rapidly expand fertilizer supplies to Ukraine

Ukraine imports up to 2.7 million tonnes a year

Ukraine’s annual mineral-fertilizer imports have ranged between 2.5 million and 2.7 million tonnes in recent years, according to Eurostat data and analysis by Poland’s Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics. The size of this market makes imported supplies an important part of fertilizer availability for Ukrainian farmers.

Single-nutrient nitrogen fertilizers account for more than half of the total import volume. Deliveries of compound fertilizers exceed 1 million tonnes annually, creating a second major segment in which foreign producers compete for Ukrainian demand.

Poland retains the leading position

Poland remains Ukraine’s main fertilizer partner and supplies primarily nitrogen and compound products, Top Agrar reported. Arkadiusz Zalewski said Polish producers continue to hold the strongest position in deliveries of the most important fertilizer groups.

Poland’s lead gives its manufacturers a substantial presence across both of Ukraine’s largest import categories. However, the supplier base is becoming more diverse, particularly in nitrogen fertilizers, as producers from China and Azerbaijan expand their sales.

China and Azerbaijan accelerate deliveries

The most significant change over the past three years has been the rapid growth of newer supply origins. China increased fertilizer deliveries almost ninefold, with nitrogen products dominating its shipments. Azerbaijan recorded an even steeper rise: its supplies grew nearly 25-fold and consisted exclusively of nitrogen fertilizers.

These growth rates do not establish that either country has overtaken Poland in absolute volume. They do show that competition is strengthening in the segment that represents more than half of Ukraine’s fertilizer imports. For producers and traders, the shift broadens the range of potential suppliers and increases pressure to compete on price, product availability and delivery terms.

Bulgaria has also joined the group of key suppliers, concentrating mainly on compound fertilizers. Its role differs from that of Azerbaijan, which serves only the nitrogen segment, and from China, whose deliveries are also led by nitrogen products.

Product mix determines trade routes

Ukraine’s sourcing pattern varies clearly by fertilizer type. Poland has a broad position in nitrogen and compound fertilizers, while China and Azerbaijan are gaining ground mainly through nitrogen products. Bulgaria is focused largely on compound fertilizer, and demand for potash fertilizer is met primarily by imports from Jordan and Spain.

This division shows that Ukraine is not replacing one supplier with another across the entire market. Instead, separate groups of exporting countries are competing within individual product categories. Nitrogen fertilizer is the largest and most contested segment, while compound and potash products follow different supply routes.

For Ukrainian importers, a wider supplier base can reduce dependence on a single origin, although the available data do not provide prices or individual country volumes. For Polish producers, the central commercial issue is defending their leading position as China and Azerbaijan scale up deliveries. Bulgarian, Jordanian and Spanish suppliers remain important because they serve product categories where sourcing patterns differ from the nitrogen market.