CBOT grains rally as USDA cuts production and stock forecasts
CBOT grain futures closed higher across the board on Friday, July 10, led by wheat gaining more than 3%, after the USDA lowered production and stockpile estimates. Reports of Russia restricting wheat shipments through the Don-Azov corridor added further support.
Grain futures close higher across the board
Grain contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher across the board on Friday, July 10, led by wheat, which surged more than 3%, according to news agency InfoQuest as carried by ryt9.com. The gains followed the release of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, in which the agency lowered its forecasts for grain production and stockpiles.
Wheat leads on tighter US and Russian supply
Wheat led the advance after reports that Russia limited wheat shipments through the Don-Azov corridor. That corridor accounts for nearly a quarter of the Russian wheat exported from the region, tightening expectations for near-term Black Sea flows.
The USDA added to the bullish tone with its Friday WASDE report. The agency forecast US wheat production for 2026 at 1.536 billion bushels, down 7 million bushels from its June estimate. If realized, that figure would mark the lowest US wheat output since 1970.
Corn and soybean stocks trimmed
Corn contracts also rose after the USDA report showed US corn stocks for 2025/26 falling by 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion bushels, driven mainly by feed use and ethanol production. Global corn stocks were cut by 5.96 million tonnes to 275.26 million tonnes.
Soybean contracts advanced as well. The WASDE report showed US soybean stocks for 2025/26 down 10 million bushels to 330 million bushels, as exports rose by 10 million bushels.
What it means for the trade
The combined cuts to production and ending stocks across wheat, corn and soybeans point to a tighter global grain balance heading into the new marketing year. For importers, firmer US and Black Sea supply signals raise the risk of higher offer prices, while exporters gain pricing leverage as available cushions shrink.
- US wheat production 2026: 1.536 billion bushels, down 7 million bushels from June, the lowest since 1970 if realized.
- US corn stocks 2025/26: 2.02 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels.
- Global corn stocks: 275.26 million tonnes, down 5.96 million tonnes.
- US soybean stocks 2025/26: 330 million bushels, down 10 million bushels.
