Wood in the rough market in Japan

Earlier Report Observations

The market for wood in the rough in Japan underwent a severe contraction in 2019, with volume dropping to 23 560 thousand tons from 57 186 thousand tons the previous year. This decline was primarily due to a steep fall in imports, which collapsed from over 38 000 thousand tons to just over 5 000 thousand tons. Industry dynamics during this period included a shift in distribution channels, marked by a rise in direct shipments to sawmills that bypassed traditional marketplaces.

Global supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to sharply higher prices for imported wood and increased demand for domestic timber. This trend intensified into the 2021 'Wood Shock,' where timber prices soared to up to four times normal levels due to pandemic effects, high oil prices, and a weak yen. The surge in demand for domestic wood boosted production, helping drive market volume to 25 705 thousand tons in 2021. Further market growth to 26 329 thousand tons in 2022 was supported by sustained high prices and additional global supply constraints following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which included a Russian timber export ban affecting Japan.

In 2023, the market volume declined to 23 888 thousand tons as global timber demand softened. This was influenced by rising U.S. interest rates reducing housing demand and concerns over China's property market, which led to a significant drop in Japan's imports of logs, sawnwood, and glued laminated timber. Concurrently, the domestic industry continued its structural evolution, facing challenges such as the aging of local timber sellers and ongoing rationalization of distribution networks.

Production wood in the rough in Japan

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Globally, Japan ranked as the 25th largest producer of wood in the rough from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of wood in the rough, 2018-2021

World map of production of wood in the rough, 2018-2021

Japan's production of wood in the rough grew for the third consecutive year. In 2021, the country produced 21 487 K t, representing an 8.2% year-over-year increase. Over the 2018-2021 period, production rose by 12.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports wood in the rough from Japan

Exports in kind, K t

Export volumes showed significant volatility during this period. The lowest level was recorded in 2018, while the peak occurred in 2020, creating a 6.2-fold difference between these years. In 2021, Japan's cross-border shipments of wood in the rough totaled 1 344 K t, marking a substantial 13.8% decline from 2020. The maximum volume of 1 560 K t was achieved in 2020, while the largest percentage increase of 385.5% was recorded in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, China remained Japan's dominant export partner for wood in the rough in volume terms, accounting for 80.5% of total flows, with other markets forming a long tail of smaller destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Japan's export value of wood in the rough increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, exports reached 191.9 M $ US, representing a 25.3% rise compared to the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, export value grew by 43.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

During 2018-2021, China absorbed 80.0% of Japan's total export value of wood in the rough, with the remaining 20.0% distributed across a wide range of smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Japan in value, 2018-2021

Imports wood in the rough to Japan

Imports in kind, K t

Import volumes exhibited considerable volatility throughout these years. The lowest point occurred in 2020, while the highest was in 2018, resulting in an 8.9-fold difference between these extremes. In 2021, Japan imported 5 563 K t of wood in the rough, showing a significant 29.8% increase from the previous year. The minimum volume of 4 284 K t was recorded in 2020, while the largest percentage decline of 86.8% occurred in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Throughout 2018-2021, the United States and Canada remained Japan's primary import partners for wood in the rough in volume terms, together accounting for 83.0% of total flows, with other partners making up the remainder.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year contraction, Japan's import value of wood in the rough rebounded in 2021. The country imported 776.0 M $ US worth of wood in the rough that year, indicating a sharp 36.6% year-over-year gain. However, between 2018 and 2021, import value decreased by 13.7%, equating to an annualized decline of 4.8%. The lowest value of 567.9 M $ US was recorded in 2020, which also saw the largest percentage decline of 23.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the United States and Canada dominated Japan's import value of wood in the rough, together accounting for 85.4% of total flows, with other destinations contributing smaller individual shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021