Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Western Africa

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, the market for wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Western Africa shifted from moderate stability to growth. After a slight dip to 6 183 thousand tons in 2019, market volume expanded to 6 883 thousand tons in 2020. This increase was driven by the entry of new private capital into the milling sector, specifically a double investment by the GMA group, which enhanced local production capacity.

From 2021 onward, the market entered a period of contraction, declining to 5 874 thousand tons by 2023. The primary driver was a sharp rise in international wheat prices, initially triggered by early tensions in Ukraine in 2021 and then exacerbated by the full-scale war in 2022, which pushed costs above €500 per ton. This price shock increased import expenses and squeezed millers' margins, reducing overall consumption. The non-renewal of the Ukrainian grain export agreement in July 2023 further constrained supply. Concurrently, labor strikes at Ivorian mills in 2021 and 2022 temporarily disrupted production. In response, governments implemented support measures, including a 6.4 billion FCFA subsidy for flour imports in Côte d'Ivoire and a VAT exemption on wheat flour in Senegal, to mitigate cost pressures.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Western Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

In 2020, Western Africa produced 6 368 K t of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, representing a robust year-on-year increase of 11.4%. Between 2017 and 2020, production grew by 12.3%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 4.0%. The largest decline occurred in 2019, when production fell by 1.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Western Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Western Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The market showed an unstable trend throughout the period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2017, then peaked in 2019 with a 3.9-fold increase between these years. In 2020, foreign wheat and meslin flour and cereals supplies from Western Africa amounted to 110.0 K t, which is 4.3% lower than the previous year. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 115.0 K t, with the largest increase occurring that same year at 262.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Western Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Morocco accounted for the largest share of exports in kind of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Western Africa, representing 1.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Western Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, Western Africa exported 74.6 M $ US of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, up by 8.0% year-on-year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports increased by 30.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.3%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 5.2%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 27.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Western Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Western Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Western Africa

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, wheat and meslin flour and cereals deliveries to Western Africa totaled 624.9 K t, indicating a gain of 7.1% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 13.2%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 4.2%. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 674.9 K t. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 13.5%, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 22.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Western Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Turkey, the Netherlands, and Spain played notable but not dominant roles as suppliers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Western Africa. Turkey accounted for 30.9% of imports in kind, the Netherlands for 7.0%, and Spain for 6.8%. Together, their joint share reached only 44.7% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Western Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, wheat and meslin flour and cereals volumes in Western Africa reached 272.1 M $ US, marking a notable gain of 18.2% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 27%, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.3%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 11.9%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 21.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Western Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the partner landscape for imports in value terms was wide. Turkey accounted for 28.5% of imports in value terms, Spain for 7.2%, and France for 6.9%. Together, these three countries formed only 42.6% of total flows, while a substantial 57.4% was supplied by many other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Western Africa in value, 2017-2020