Rice market in Nigeria

Earlier Report Observations

Nigeria's rice market was fundamentally reshaped by the full implementation of the import ban in 2018, which triggered a large-scale shift of about 12 million farmers into rice cultivation and boosted domestic output by approximately 25%. This protective policy, maintained through high tariffs and enforcement by the Nigeria Customs Service, kept the market volume around 8.4 million metric tons in 2018–2019, before a dip to 8.2 million metric tons in 2020 amid the broad economic disruptions of the COVID‑19 pandemic.

From 2021 onward, the market entered a phase of steady expansion, reaching 8.9 million metric tons by 2023. This growth occurred despite mounting headwinds: sharp price escalations driven by inflation, naira depreciation, and higher production costs strained local producers from 2021. Insecurity and banditry in northern rice‑producing states disrupted farming cycles and raised farm‑gate expenses. By 2023, the removal of fuel subsidies and soaring diesel prices severely increased milling and transport costs, leading many rice mills to reduce operations, with less than half of the country's estimated 272 mills reported operational.

In 2024, policy direction shifted temporarily with the introduction of a 150‑day zero‑duty import waiver for rice, aimed at curbing food inflation by lowering the levy from 30% to 0%. This move aligned with global supply‑side developments, such as India's decision to eliminate export duties on most rice types, which increased global availability. Simultaneously, domestic processors continued to face high operational costs due to rising diesel and electricity prices.

Production rice in Nigeria

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

On a global scale, Nigeria ranked as the 14th largest producer of rice during the period from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of rice, 2017-2020

Following two consecutive years of growth, Nigeria's rice production volume experienced a decline. In 2020, the country produced 8 172 thousand tonnes of rice, representing a modest decrease of 3.1% compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, overall production increased by 4.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 8 436 thousand tonnes, while the largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2018 at 7.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports rice from Nigeria

Exports in kind, t

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Nigeria's rice exports in volume terms were almost entirely directed to Sierra Leone, which accounted for 91.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout the 2017-2020 period, Sierra Leone dominated Nigeria's rice exports in value terms, consistently representing 98.6% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020

Imports rice to Nigeria

Imports in kind, t

The data reveals significant volatility in import levels, indicating an unstable market environment. Import volumes fluctuated dramatically, with a 138-fold difference between the low point in 2019 and the peak in 2020. In 2020, Nigeria imported 10 505 tonnes of rice, marking an extraordinary increase of 13,673.1% from the 2019 level of just 76 tonnes. The largest decline occurred in 2019, when imports fell by 98.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, t

During the 2017-2020 period, Nigeria's rice imports in volume terms were heavily concentrated on two countries: India and Brazil. Together, these two partners accounted for 86.8% of total import flows, with other countries representing only marginal shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The market exhibited considerable volatility during these years. Import values showed extreme fluctuations, with a 147-fold difference between the 2019 trough and the 2020 peak. In 2020, Nigeria's rice imports reached 13 345 thousand US dollars, representing a dramatic increase of 14,596.7% compared to the 2019 level of 91 thousand US dollars. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, when import values dropped by 98.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, India and Brazil served as the primary sources for Nigeria's rice imports in value terms, jointly accounting for 86.2% of total import flows. Other trading partners maintained comparatively modest shares during this period.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020