Pastry market in Sub-Saharan Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The pastry market volume in Sub-Saharan Africa experienced significant fluctuations between 2018 and 2023. After an initial decline to 412 thousand tons in 2019, largely due to a sharp contraction in imports, the market recovered during the COVID-19 pandemic. Changes in consumption habits, such as increased home baking during lockdowns, supported domestic production and contributed to market growth in 2020 and 2021.

Following a peak in 2021, the market contracted in 2022 as local production fell, despite rising imports. The market then reached its highest volume in 2023 at 494 thousand tons, driven by a surge in imports. This growth coincided with the sector's increasing professionalization and international visibility, exemplified by Africa's pastry selections being hosted in Morocco for prestigious world competitions, which stimulated demand.

Throughout the period, underlying consumer preferences continued to shift towards artisanal, personalized, and premium pastry products. The broader growth of the African foodservice sector, supported by rising disposable incomes and trends favoring quick service and home delivery, provided a steady demand base for pastry consumption.

Production pastry in Sub-Saharan Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of pastry, 2017-2020

World map of production of pastry, 2017-2020

Pastry production in Sub-Saharan Africa grew for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 384.4 thousand tons of pastry, representing a 7.3% increase compared to 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 10%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The value of pastry production in Sub-Saharan Africa fell for the third consecutive year. In 2020, output was valued at 1 749 million US dollars, marking a modest year-over-year decline of 7.0%. Between 2017 and 2020, production value dropped by 25.5%, which translates to an annualized decrease of 9.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports pastry from Sub-Saharan Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Pastry exports from Sub-Saharan Africa showed significant fluctuations during this period. The lowest volume was recorded in 2017, while the highest was reached in 2018, with a peak-to-trough ratio of 2.5 times. In 2020, exports totaled 12.2 thousand tons, a 47.8% decrease from the previous year. The maximum volume of 23.8 thousand tons was achieved in 2018, which also saw the largest increase of 152.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, pastry exports in volume terms were distributed across a wide range of partner countries. The United States accounted for 7.8% of exports, the United Arab Emirates for 7.3%, and Australia for 3.4%. Together, these three countries made up just 18.4% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Pastry exports from Sub-Saharan Africa declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports were valued at 48.2 million US dollars, down 14.3% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value decreased by 11.5%, with an average annual decline of 4.0%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 59.0 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 8.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the distribution of pastry export value remained scattered across countries. The United States contributed 8.3% of export value, the United Arab Emirates 5.6%, and the United Kingdom 4.3%. Combined, these three partners accounted for only 18.1% of total flows, with no single country emerging as clearly dominant.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports pastry to Sub-Saharan Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Pastry imports into Sub-Saharan Africa followed an unstable trend during this timeframe. The lowest volume occurred in 2020, while the highest was in 2018, with a top-to-bottom ratio of 2.3 times. In 2020, imports amounted to 70.1 thousand tons, a gradual decrease of 8.7% compared to 2019. The maximum volume of 158.7 thousand tons was recorded in 2018, which also saw the largest increase of 81.8%. The largest decline of 51.6% occurred in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Data from 2017 to 2020 indicate that pastry imports in volume terms to Sub-Saharan Africa were not heavily concentrated. Brazil accounted for 19.6% of imports, Turkey for 11.7%, and India for 10.5%. Together, these three countries represented only 41.8% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Pastry imports into Sub-Saharan Africa decreased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports were valued at 139.4 million US dollars, equivalent to an 8.9% reduction from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value fell by 9.8%, with an average annual decline of 3.4%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 164.9 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 6.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, pastry imports in value terms to Sub-Saharan Africa were characterized by a broad spread across markets. France accounted for 14.6% of import value, Malaysia for 10.0%, and Turkey for 5.4%. Together, these three countries made up only 30.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020