Pastry market in MENA

Earlier Report Observations

The MENA pastry market volume grew from 599 thousand tons in 2018 to 807 thousand tons in 2019, supported by urbanization and an expanding working population that increased demand for convenient bakery products. However, market value declined over the same period, suggesting changes in pricing or product composition. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 disrupted global supply chains, limiting the availability of key ingredients like eggs, cocoa, and sugar, which led to a contraction in both volume and value.

Recovery began in 2021 as government investments in integrated agricultural projects, particularly in Egypt, improved the supply of raw materials for pastry production. This, combined with rising output of fruits and vegetables in North Africa, helped boost market volume to 688 thousand tons and value to $5.2 billion. The upward trend accelerated in 2022 with the entry of new players focusing on artisanal and premium pastries, alongside shifting consumer preferences toward healthier options, driving volume to a peak of 894 thousand tons and value to $7.4 billion.

In 2023, the market experienced a downturn, with volume falling to 723 thousand tons and value to $6.7 billion. During this period, the industry saw expanded use of technology and artificial intelligence to reduce waste and improve production efficiency, as well as growing health awareness spurring new product development with natural ingredients.

Production pastry in MENA

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of pastry, 2017-2020

World map of production of pastry, 2017-2020

Pastry production in the MENA region declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, production reached 459.6 K t, remaining almost unchanged compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production increased by 3.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 478.7 K t. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 3.6%, while the largest increase was seen in 2018, with growth of 8.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in MENA in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Pastry production in the MENA region declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 3 857 M $ US, down by 22.4% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production decreased by 9.1%, equating to an annualized decline of 3.1%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 5 639 M $ US. The largest increase occurred in 2018, with growth of 32.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in MENA in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports pastry from MENA

Exports in kind, K t

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2019 and peaked in 2020, with a 1.9-fold difference between these years. In 2020, foreign pastry supplies from MENA stood at 261.1 K t, indicating a steep increase of 87.2% compared to the previous year. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 139.5 K t. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 27.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MENA in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the portfolio of buyers for pastry from MENA was broad. The United States (6.5% of exports in kind), Afghanistan (5.0% of exports in kind), and Pakistan (2.9% of exports in kind) together contributed only 14.5% of total exports in kind, while many other countries had smaller but non-negligible shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MENA in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

MENA's volume of pastry exports increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports reached 774 M $ US, equivalent to a modest improvement of 4.7% from 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports increased by 11.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MENA in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, pastry from MENA was supplied to a broad set of markets. The United States (8.5% of exports in value terms), Afghanistan (2.7% of exports in value terms), and Pakistan (1.7% of exports in value terms) together accounted for only 12.9% of total exports in value terms, while many smaller destinations formed the remaining 87.1%.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MENA in value, 2017-2020

Imports pastry to MENA

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, the volume of pastry imports into MENA totalled 452.6 K t, representing a moderate reduction of 6.7% versus the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 44%, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.9%. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 312.9 K t, while the maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 485.2 K t. The largest increase occurred in 2019, with growth of 55.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MENA in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Over 2017 to 2020, the country breakdown of imports in kind remained scattered. Turkey (20.9% of imports in kind), the United States (5.4% of imports in kind), and Spain (3.3% of imports in kind) together accounted for just 29.6% of total flows, with no partner standing out as clearly dominant.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MENA in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

MENA's pastry import volume increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, import volume reached 1 539 M $ US, up by 7.6% year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 19.8%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 6.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MENA in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over 2017 to 2020, imports in value terms of pastry to MENA were characterised by a broad spread across markets. Turkey (14.7% of imports in value terms), the United States (8.6% of imports in value terms), and Italy (3.8% of imports in value terms) together accounted for only 27.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MENA in value, 2017-2020