Paper and paperboard waste market in Japan

Earlier Report Observations

The Japanese paper and paperboard waste market started the period under pressure from international trade shifts. In 2018, strong Chinese demand for waste paper, as China sourced from Japan amid trade tensions with the U.S., led to increased exports and tightened domestic supply. The anticipated implementation of China's 'National Sword' policy, which would ban waste paper imports from 2021, further influenced market dynamics by constraining future export channels.

Domestic market volume experienced a brief recovery in 2021, reaching 16 060 thousand tons, before resuming a downward trend to 14 920 thousand tons by 2023. This period was characterized by a steady decline in domestic production and reduced export volumes following the enforcement of the Chinese import ban.

Market conditions in 2024 and 2025 were shaped by high prices and weak personal consumption, which dampened demand for packaging papers. The full enforcement of the Electronic Book Preservation Law in January 2024 accelerated the shift from paper to digital media. Furthermore, the trend toward plastic-free alternatives spurred the development of paper-based packaging, while the closure of Oji Paper's Tomakomai mill paper machine in March 2025 signaled a reduction in production capacity.

Production paper and paperboard waste in Japan

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Globally, Japan ranked as the third-largest producer of paper and paperboard waste from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of paper and paperboard waste, 2018-2021

World map of production of paper and paperboard waste, 2018-2021

Japan's production of paper and paperboard waste declined for the third year in a row. In 2021, the country produced 18 409 K t, which was 2.4% lower than in 2020. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, production fell by 11%, translating to an annualized decrease of 3.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports paper and paperboard waste from Japan

Exports in kind, K t

In 2021, Japan exported 2 365 K t of paper and paperboard waste, marking a sharp year-over-year drop of 25.8%. From 2018 to 2021, exports decreased by 37.4%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -14.5%. The only increase during this period occurred in 2020, when exports rose by 1.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the three largest markets for Japan's paper and paperboard waste exports in volume terms were China, Vietnam, and Asia, not elsewhere specified. Together, they accounted for 75.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

After two years of decline, Japan's paper and paperboard waste export value increased in 2021, reaching 512.4 M $ US, a 23.7% rise compared to 2020. However, over the full period from 2018 to 2021, export value decreased by 32.8%, with a CAGR of -12.4%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 414.2 M $ US, while the largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 40.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, China, Vietnam, and Asia, not elsewhere specified were the main buyers of Japan's paper and paperboard waste in value terms. China accounted for 46.9% of exports, Vietnam for 17.5%, and Asia, not elsewhere specified for 11.8%. Combined, these three markets made up 76.2% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Japan in value, 2018-2021

Imports paper and paperboard waste to Japan

Imports in kind, K t

Japan's imports of paper and paperboard waste declined for the second consecutive year in 2021, totaling 16 K t, a steep 46.7% decrease year-over-year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, imports fell by 61.6%, with a CAGR of -27.3%. The highest import volume was in 2019 at 47 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 12.6% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the United States dominated Japan's paper and paperboard waste imports in volume terms, accounting for 85.7% of the total. The remaining imports were spread across a wide range of smaller countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Japan's imports of paper and paperboard waste in value terms declined for the third year in a row in 2021, totaling 7.2 M $ US, a sharp 26.9% reduction compared to the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, import value decreased by 60.8%, equating to an annualized rate of -26.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the United States was the primary source for Japan's paper and paperboard waste imports in value terms, holding an 89.7% share of total flows. The rest of the imports were distributed among numerous other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Japan in value, 2018-2021