Palm oil and fractions market in China

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2019, the Chinese palm oil market expanded sharply from 5.4 million metric tons to 7.6 million metric tons. This surge was primarily driven by the African swine fever outbreak, which reduced domestic soybean oil production and boosted palm oil demand, coupled with the US-China trade tensions that made palm oil a more attractive alternative to soybean oil. During this period, major importer COFCO also introduced a sustainable palm oil procurement policy, signaling a shift toward greener supply chains.

The market then contracted over 2020-2022, falling to 5.0 million metric tons by 2022. Supply was constrained by COVID-19 disruptions and adverse weather in Indonesia and Malaysia, while Indonesia's B30 and B35 biodiesel mandates increased domestic consumption, reducing export availability. Additionally, export duties and restrictions in producing countries further tightened global supply.

In 2023, market volume partially recovered to 5.7 million metric tons, supported by low palm oil stocks in Malaysia and tight global vegetable oil supplies due to sustained biodiesel demand.

Production palm oil and fractions in China

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, China ranked 23rd globally in the production of palm oil and fractions.

Top producers of palm oil and fractions, 2017-2020

World map of production of palm oil and fractions, 2017-2020

In 2020, China produced 112.4 K t of palm oil and fractions, showing only a slight fluctuation compared to 2019. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 113.0 K t, with the largest increase of 0.5% occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of production in China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

After two years of decline, China's production of palm oil and fractions rebounded. In 2020, the output was valued at 85 245 K $ US, marking a 6.8% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 8.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.1%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 79 797 K $ US, which also saw the largest decline of 10.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in China in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports palm oil and fractions from China

Exports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during these years, with a 1.8-fold difference between the peak in 2018 at 33 K t and the low in 2017. In 2020, China's exports of palm oil and fractions totaled 26 K t, representing a significant decrease of 18.9% compared to 2019. The largest increase of 80.6% was recorded in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, China's exports of palm oil and fractions in kind were primarily directed toward North Korea and Hong Kong, which together accounted for 83.5% of total flows, while other destinations played a minor role.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from China in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The market demonstrated volatility over the observed period, with a 1.7-fold variation from the high in 2018 to the low in 2017. In 2020, China exported 19 M $ US of palm oil and fractions, showing a notable decrease of 13.0% from the previous year. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 26 M $ US, with the largest decline of 15.4% in 2019 and the largest increase of 71.8% in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, North Korea and Hong Kong were the key partner countries for China's exports in value terms, together making up 82.7% of total flows, with other partners accounting for the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from China in value, 2017-2020

Imports palm oil and fractions to China

Imports in kind, K t

Following a two-year rise, China's imports of palm oil and fractions declined. In 2020, imports amounted to approximately 6 461 K t, reflecting a 14.4% year-over-year decrease. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 27.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.4%. The highest import level was recorded in 2019 at 7 552 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 41.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Indonesia and Malaysia dominated China's imports of palm oil and fractions in kind, together holding a 99.9% share of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to China in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Cross-border shipments of palm oil and fractions to China increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 4 124 M $ US, showing no significant change compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 18%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 5.7%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 3 395 M $ US, which experienced the largest decline of 2.9%, while the largest increase of 21.0% occurred in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Indonesia and Malaysia remained the primary sources for China's imports of palm oil and fractions in value terms, accounting together for 99.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to China in value, 2017-2020