Not carded or combed cotton market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the production and market volume of not carded or combed cotton in Eastern Africa increased steadily. Production rose from 1 152 thousand tons in 2018 to 1 316 thousand tons in 2020, while market volume expanded from 1 099 thousand tons to 1 246 thousand tons over the same period. This growth was followed by a sharp contraction in 2021, with production dropping to 1 047 thousand tons and market volume to 955 thousand tons. A partial recovery occurred in 2022, but production and market volume fell again in 2023 to 999 thousand tons and 903 thousand tons respectively.

The decline in 2023 was driven by challenges in the cotton sector. The Cotton Development Organisation set a purchase price of Shs 2 300 per kilogram, but farmers in regions like West Nile received as low as Shs 1 300, leading to dissatisfaction and reduced incentives for cotton cultivation. Legislators criticized the Ministry of Trade, Industries and Cooperatives for inadequate price regulation, exacerbating the situation.

Structural issues have long affected the market. Since at least 2017, cotton has faced competition from more profitable crops such as groundnuts, rice, sesame, and sugarcane, prompting farmers to shift away from cotton. By 2024, the government had no plan to support falling cotton exports, and farmers continued to demand better prices and early seed distribution to revive cultivation.

Production not carded or combed cotton in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of not carded or combed cotton, 2017-2020

World map of production of not carded or combed cotton, 2017-2020

Eastern Africa's production of not carded or combed cotton has grown for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 1 316 K t, marking a 5.1% increase compared to the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 44%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 12.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of growth, the value of not carded or combed cotton production in Eastern Africa saw a decline. In 2020, output was valued at 1 714 M $ US, down by 16.9% from the year before. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value increased by 33.6%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 2 064 M $ US, while the largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2018 at 52.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports not carded or combed cotton from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, exports of not carded or combed cotton from Eastern Africa decreased. In 2020, exports amounted to 91.8 K t, a 24.5% drop from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports overall increased by 16.8%, with a CAGR of 5.3%. The highest export volume was in 2019 at 121.5 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 48.9% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, South Africa, Pakistan, and Switzerland were the leading destinations for Eastern Africa's exports of not carded or combed cotton in volume terms. South Africa accounted for 43.6% of exports, Pakistan for 13.4%, and Switzerland for 11.0%. Together, these three countries represented 68.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year upward trend, the value of not carded or combed cotton exports from Eastern Africa fell. In 2020, exports totaled 119.5 M $ US, a sharp decline of 40.4% compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value increased by 8.3%, equating to an annualized rate of 2.7%. The peak was in 2019 at 200.4 M $ US, which also recorded the largest increase of 44.3% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, South Africa, Switzerland, and Pakistan were the top destinations for Eastern Africa's exports of not carded or combed cotton in value terms. South Africa made up 41.0% of exports, Switzerland 11.0%, and Pakistan 8.9%. Combined, these three countries accounted for 60.9% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports not carded or combed cotton to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, Eastern Africa's imports of not carded or combed cotton in volume terms declined. In 2020, imports stood at 32.2 K t, showing a significant decrease of 31.8% year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import volume decreased by 22.4%, with a CAGR of -8.1%. The highest import volume was in 2019 at 32.2 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 12.5% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

The import structure for not carded or combed cotton in Eastern Africa from 2017 to 2020 was highly diversified. India was the largest supplier with 21.3% of imports, followed by South Africa at 11.8% and Cameroon at 3.4%. Together, these three countries accounted for only 36.5% of total import volume, with the remaining 63.5% spread across numerous smaller markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, Eastern Africa's imports of not carded or combed cotton in value terms amounted to 36.6 M $ US, representing a sharp decline of 37.5% compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value decreased by 35.6%, with a CAGR of -13.7%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 58.6 M $ US, which also saw the largest increase of 4.9% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, India, South Africa, and Cameroon were the largest suppliers of not carded or combed cotton to Eastern Africa in value terms. India accounted for 21.7% of imports, South Africa for 11.3%, and Cameroon for 3.5%. However, their combined share was limited to 36.5% of total import value, indicating a diversified supplier base with many smaller contributors.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020