Milk powder market in Brazil

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, the Brazilian milk powder market operated under new regulatory frameworks. The approval of Normative Instruction No. 53/2018 harmonized rules for additives and packaging with Mercosur standards, while stricter microbiological criteria for raw milk were implemented in 2019. These measures aimed to standardize production quality. During this period, domestic production remained stable around 590-598 thousand tons annually. The market volume grew to 704 thousand tons in 2020, supported by a rise in imports which reached 115 thousand tons that year, even as new labeling and hermetic packaging rules came into effect.

The market dynamics shifted from 2021 to 2022. Growing domestic demand for milk powder, with a notable increase in household penetration, supported production levels. However, a sharp drop in imports to 76 thousand tons in 2021 contributed to a contraction in total market volume to 664 thousand tons. The following year, a 5% decline in national raw milk output led to a significant 40% surge in powder imports, which reached 107 thousand tons and accounted for 10% of domestic consumption. Despite this inflow, a substantial drop in domestic production to 513 thousand tons caused the overall market size to fall further to 614 thousand tons in 2022, amid high food inflation and currency valuation pressures.

In 2023, federal policy played a direct role. The government launched a program to purchase milk powder to support domestic producers, coinciding with the application of a 10% common external tariff on imported dairy products. These actions were taken against a backdrop of continued export restrictions within Mercosur. Consequently, domestic production recovered to 559 thousand tons, while imports skyrocketed to 199 thousand tons. This combination drove a sharp 24% expansion in the total market volume, which reached 758 thousand tons in 2023.

Production milk powder in Brazil

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

On a global scale, Brazil ranked as the world's third-largest producer of milk powder between 2018 and 2021.

Top producers of milk powder, 2018-2021

World map of production of milk powder, 2018-2021

In 2021, Brazil produced 594.0 thousand tons of milk powder, marking a modest increase of 0.7% compared to the previous year. Production peaked in 2019 at 598.0 thousand tons, which represented a 2.2% rise from the prior year. The most significant decline occurred in 2020, with a drop of 1.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports milk powder from Brazil

Exports in kind, K t

Export volumes showed considerable volatility during this period. The lowest point was recorded in 2019 at 0.5 thousand tons, while exports surged to 6.3 thousand tons in 2021—a remarkable 380.2% increase over 2020. This represents a 13.7-fold difference between the high in 2021 and the low in 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2019, falling by 21.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Between 2018 and 2021, Algeria dominated Brazil's milk powder exports in volume, accounting for 83.6% of total shipments. The remaining share was distributed among a fragmented group of other markets.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Brazil in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Export values exhibited significant volatility from 2018 to 2021. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 1.0 million US dollars, while exports reached 21.6 million US dollars in 2021—a substantial 464.4% increase compared to 2020. This represents a 22-fold difference between the peak in 2021 and the trough in 2019. The most pronounced decline occurred in 2019, dropping by 49.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Brazil in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout the 2018–2021 period, Algeria played the leading role in Brazil's milk powder exports by value, capturing 86.4% of total flows. Other markets collectively accounted for the remaining share.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Brazil in value, 2018-2021

Imports milk powder to Brazil

Imports in kind, K t

Brazil's milk powder imports totaled 75.8 thousand tons in 2021, reflecting a 34.1% decrease year-over-year. Imports peaked in 2020 at 115.1 thousand tons, which represented a 32.9% increase from the previous year. Overall, imports declined by 21.6% between 2018 and 2021, equivalent to an annualized rate of 7.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Brazil's milk powder imports in volume were primarily sourced from Argentina and Uruguay, which together accounted for 93.2% of total flows. Other destinations played a secondary role in the import structure.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Brazil in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, Brazil's milk powder imports amounted to 249.0 million US dollars, indicating a sharp contraction of 27.9% compared to the previous year. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 248.5 million US dollars, while imports peaked in 2020 at 345.2 million US dollars—a 38.9% increase from the prior year. Overall, imports decreased by 9.4% between 2018 and 2021, equating to an annualized rate of 3.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Brazil in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, Argentina and Uruguay remained the primary sources for Brazil's milk powder imports by value, jointly accounting for 93.4% of total flows. Other partners constituted the remaining share.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Brazil in value, 2018-2021